| Economy should be low-carbon,and low-carbon must be economical.Since the reform and opening-up more than 40 years ago,from the initial “Agriculture,rural areas and farmers”policy to the Rural Revitalization Strategy in the new era,benefited from the release of “policy dividends”,China’s total agricultural output value has increased at an average annual rate of11.62%,creating an “economic miracle” that has attracted worldwide attention.However,the issue of rural greenhouse gas emissions represented by carbon emissions has also sounded the“alarm” simultaneously,China’s agricultural carbon emissions(ACE)increased at an average annual rate of 5%,and forming a non-coordinated development mode of “common progress”with the agricultural economy.ACE have gradually become an important restricting factor of sustainable,coordinated and high-quality development of rural soc-economy.Stabilizing agricultural fundamentals and keeping the foundation of “agriculture,rural areas and farmers”well are the “anchor” for coping with emergencies and starting new situations.As one of the most basic and important fields in China,agriculture assumes the important “responsibility”of protecting the quantity and quality of 1.8 Billion Mu of farmland,ensuring national food security and suppling of important agricultural products effectively.Based on the reality that agriculture possesses the “dual identity” of carbon source and carbon sink,facing the goal and task of “carbon peaking and carbon neutrality” and the internal requirements of China’s entry into a new development stage for high-quality of economy,how to adhere to the coordinated promotion of reducing carbon emission,increasing carbon sink and improving the quality and efficiency of economy in the agricultural field,so as to realize the sustainable,coordinated and high-quality development of these three aspects,has become an important practical problem that needs to be solved urgently.The design of a theoretical policy optimization framework for the sustainable and coordinated development of agricultural carbon footprint(ACF)and economy,which take carbon sink into consideration generates important theoretical reference value for the effective formulating and implementing of “targeted carbon reduction” measures and agricultural environmental management policy.On the basis of the abovementioned background,this study focuses on solving the following four problems: firstly,reveal the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of China’s ACF and the causes of regional differences;Secondly,analyzes the regional differences,convergence characteristics and influencing factors of China’s agricultural economic development level;Thirdly,explores the coordination and causal relationship between China’s ACF and economic development level;Fourth,establish a policy optimization framework to promote the sustainable and coordinated development of China’s agricultural carbon reduction,carbon sink increases and economy level.Based on the above four problems,in this study,we summarized the relevant research literatures and research methods on ACF and economic development by combing the existing literatures.Firstly,analyzing the regional differences and its contribution rates of China’s ACF considering carbon sink effect,by using IPCC carbon conversion coefficient method and Theil index.Secondly,establish evaluation index system of China’s agricultural economic level from the static dimension,dynamic dimension and benefit dimension comprehensively,and then analyze it spatiotemporal heterogeneity,convergence characteristics and influencing factors applying AHP method,TOPSIS entropy method,D-S evidence theory synthesis method,convergence model and OLS.Thirdly,based on multiple theories,i.e.,Low-carbon economy theory,Environmental Kuznets theory,Synergy theory,Decoupling theory and Sustainable Development theory,combining with Tapio Decoupling model,Solow model,Cointegration model and Granger Causality test based on Vector Error Correction model(VECM),we explored the coordination and its causality between ACF and economic level.Finally,based on the conclusion of the coordination and causal relationship between China’s ACF and economic level draw from the study,we put forward the necessity,basic principles and policy recommendations to optimize the coordinated development of China’s agricultural carbon reduction,carbon sink increase,and economic sustainability.According to the abovementioned logical relationship,the following conclusions have been drawn from this study:(1)China possesses large total ACF in the study duration,accompanying with the disequilibrium feature of main-grain producing areas are significantly higher than non-grain producing areas.Inter-regional differences are the main source of overall differences,the regional differences in ACF gradually reduced with the passage of time.Specifically,ACF of the main-grain producing areas shows a dynamic evolution trend of “from south to north” over time;in non-grain production areas,the ACF shows the dynamic evolution characteristics of transferring from “southeast coast” to “southwest coast” over time.The decomposition analysis indicated that the regional differences of ACF in non-grain producing areas are greater than those in main-grain producing areas.The regional differences of ACF in main-grain producing areas gradually decreasing,while expanding gradually in non-grain producing areas;Inter-regional difference is the main source of overall differences.(2)China’s total agricultural economic level improved during the study period,with an average index of 0.534 in the past 23 years.Significant differences exist in terms of different dimensions and regions,besides,the convergence trend of economic levels in different regions and dimensions is different due to different influencing factors.Specifically,in terms of the total agricultural economic level,it has experienced five stages: slow growth period(1997-2002),rapid decrease period(2002-2003),sustained rapid increase period(2003-2014),slow decrease period(2014-2016)and recovery increase period(2016-2019),respectively.In terms of economic scale,the main-grain producing areas have experienced four stages: stable development period(1997-2003),sustained rapid growth period(2003-2016),short decrease period(2016-2017)and recovery increase period(2017-2019),while in non-grain producing areas it’s relatively stable.From the economic growth rate perspective,the main-grain producing areas show three stages: slow growth period(1997-2007),rapid growth period(2007-2014)and stable growth period(2014-2019),respectively.The non-grain producing areas also shows a relatively stable changing trend.In terms of the economic quality,the maingrain producing areas have experienced four stages: continuous and stable growth period(1997-2007),“W” fluctuation increase period(2007-2012),short decrease period(2012-2013),continuous rapid growth period(2013-2019),while the non-grain producing areas experienced five stages: continuous growth period(1997-2006),“W” fluctuating growth period(2006-2012),short desrease period(2012-2013),rapid growth period(2013-2017)and stable development period(2017-2019),respectively.Furthermore,the urbanization level,labors’ educational level,population size,agricultural energy use efficiency and the local financial self-sufficiency rate have promoted the improvement of the overall economic level of the whole nation and the main-grain producing areas in all dimensions,and the local financial self-sufficiency rate has restrained the improvement of the agricultural economic level of the non-grain producing areas to a certain extent.Suggesting the different influencing effect should be take into consideration while formulating the promoting strategic policy for the coordinated development of regional economy,and avoid the “one size fits all”.(3)China’s ACF is well decoupled from the economic development level,accompanying with a weak decoupled state as a whole.However,there are significant differences in the degree and state of decoupled ACF from economic level in different dimensions and regions.Specifically,from the economic scale perspective,ACF and economic scale of the whole nation,main-grain producing areas and non-grain producing areas are in a growth linked state,and the decoupling degree is relatively low;From the economic growth rate perspective,the decoupling status of ACF and economic growth rate in the whole nation,main-grain producing areas and non-grain producing areas is weak,indicates a good decoupling status;From the economic quality perspective,ACF of the whole nation and the main-grain producing areas is weakly decoupled from the economic quality,while it shows a growth linked decoupled status in non-grain producing areas.Indicating that the non-grain producing areas are facing the dual tough challenges of reducing ACF and improving the economic quality.(4)There exists a drag effect between China’s ACF and economic level,and drag effect models various in different dimensions of economic level and different regions.As far as the“total drag effect” model is concerned,the total economic level,economic scale and the total drag effect of ACF are strongly constrained,while the economic growth rate,economic quality and the total drag effect of ACF are highly constrained;In terms of the “ACF drag effect”model,the ACF drag effect of the total economic level and economic scale of the main-grain producing areas shows the high constraint,the ACF drag effect of the economic growth rate and economic quality shows the low constraint,while the ACF drag effect of the fourdimensional economic levels of the non-grain producing areas shows the low constraint.(5)There exist different types of co-integration between China’s ACF and the economic level in different regions and dimensions,in the meantime,the short-term and long-term causality between China’s ACF and economic level are also different in terms of different regions and dimensions.From the perspective of cointegration,the cointegration between ACF and total economic level,economic scale,economic growth rate and economic quality in maingrain producing areas are 0.007,0.007,0.007 and 0.005,respectively;In non-grain producing areas,the cointegration coefficients between ACF and total economic level,economic scale,economic growth rate and economic quality are 0.002,0.002,0.003 and 0.002,respectively.The Granger causality testing show that a Granger causality exist between the ACF and total economic level in main-grain producing areas in the short-term,while there is a unidirectional Granger causality from the total economic level to the ACF in the long-term;There exist a bidirectional Granger causality between the economic scale,economic growth rate and ACF of the main-grain producing areas in both the short-and long-term;The improvement of economic quality in the short-term is the Granger reason for the increase of China’s ACF,but there is no Granger causality between them in the long-term.In terms of non-grain producing areas,only the economic scale and China’s ACF exist Granger causality in the short-and longterm.(6)Multi-measures should be taken to promote the sustainable and coordinated development of China’s ACF and economic development level.First of all,policy formulating should be based on the reality that agriculture possesses the dual characteristics of “carbon source and carbon sink”,and the multi-dimensional economic goals;Secondly,adhering to the basic principles of policy optimization,i.e.,giving full play to the comparative advantages of agricultural carbon sink in carbon reduction process,increasing policy guidance and financial support,last but not least,classified guidance,targeted policy implementation,and act according to circumstances.On this basis,relevant optimization policies can be formulated from the following aspects: implementing “targeted agricultural carbon reduction” and agricultural environmental management policy,establishing professional research institutions and platforms for agricultural carbon reduction and carbon sink increase,formulating laws,regulations and financial support policy for agricultural carbon reduction and carbon sink increase,establishing a comprehensive evaluation system for agricultural economic level based on the new development concept,and promoting the synergy between agricultural carbon reduction,carbon sink increase and economic promotion.Which may provide significant policy reference value for boosting China’s agriculture to give full play to its carbon sink advantages,and realize the sustainable and coordinated development of agricultural carbon reduction,carbon sink increases and economic promotion,under the“carbon peaking and carbon neutrality” background and the high-quality economic development goal. |
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