Driving Forces Of Urban And Rural Residential Carbon Emissions And Scenario Analysis Under The Background Of Peaking Target

With a significant spike in household consumption and rapid development of urbanization in China,residential carbon emissions(RCEs)increase sharply,and controlling the increase of RCEs become a key part for China to achieve the emissions peak target.Thus,how to promote the development of decarbonization trend between household consumption and RCEs,and how to control the future changes of RCEs are both significant for China to reach the residential emissions peak target.This dissertation investigates the driving forces of RCEs during 2000-2018 and detects the possible evolution of RCEs up to 2040 from both national and provincial perspectives.First,based on historical related data,the residential energy consumption structure,related RCEs and per capita RCEs are all analyzed to understand the current development trend of urban and rural RCEs in China and the existing urban-rural disparities and provincial disparities.Next,based on decoupling analysis,the relationship between household per capita consumption and per capita RCEs across urban and rural areas at both national and provincial levels are investigated,and using decomposition analysis,the driving forces of RCEs per capita are also further detected.After that,incorporating the Kaya identity and Monte Calo simulation scenario analysis,this dissertation evaluates the possible evolution and driving forces of urban and rural RCEs in China up to 2040.Finally,employing the STIRPAT model and scenario simulation analysis,this dissertation further estimates the possible trajectories and peak time of RCEs in 30 provinces up to 2040.The major contents are as follows:(1)At the national level,the decarbonization trend exists in both urban and rural areas;at the provincial level,the decoupling state of urban RCEs in 16 provinces can stay in week or strong decoupling,and the decoupling state of rural RCEs in 15 provinces can present a transition from expansive negative decoupling to weak or strong decoupling.The emission intensity can effectively inhibit the increase of RCEs and promote the development of decarbonization trend among household per capita consumption and per capita RCEs,while,the inhibition effect of emission intensity mainly comes from the reduction of residential energy intensity.(2)In the national scenario analysis,current policies scenario,stated policies scenario and sustainable development scenario are three setting scenarios.In these scenarios,the RCEs in urban and rural areas only can peak around 2035 and 2030 respectively in the sustainable development scenario,but both urban and rural RCEs present increase trends up to 2040 in the other two scenarios.Moreover,the urban RCEs are much higher than the rural RCEs and would be the main source of total HCEs in all three scenarios.Household per capita consumption is the main driving forces of RCEs to increase,but compared with the other scenarios,the impact of this driving force is much lower in the sustainable development scenario.The share of coal consumption,the share of fossil fuel and the residential energy intensity all show significant negative influence on the increase of RCEs.And in the sustainable development scenario,the negative influence of these three factors is much higher than that in the other two scenarios.(3)The provincial scenario analysis shows that in the low scenario,baseline scenario and high scenario,25 provinces can peak RCEs before 2030 in at least one scenario,while,Anhui,Fujian and Hainan can peak RCEs around 2035 in the low scenario.However,Guangxi and Hainan will maintain growth up to 2040 in all three scenarios,which means they cannot reach the RCEs peak during the study period and require more efforts to strengthen the household energy intensity improvement and energy structure adjustment.This dissertation expands the research scope of theoretical model for decoupling analysis between RCEs and household consumption.More detailed evidences for improving the residential energy efficiency and adjusting the residential energy consumption structure to promote the peak of urban and rural RCEs as soon as possible could also be given.Finally,it could provide useful insights for the policymakers to implement different measures for further mitigating the provincial RCEs to achieve the peak.