On Technology Roadmap And The Regularity Of Technology Development

Technology foresight, which is on the basic of regularity of technology development, involves the systematic attempt to look into the longer-term future of science, technology, the economy and society, with the aim of identifying the areas of strategic research and the emerging of generic technologies likely to yield the greatest economic and social benefits. And the technology roadmap is the perspective about the future extension towards a certain technology domain. This perspective focuses on collective wisdom and the ruler's opinions on the most distinct technology change. The technology roadmap uses the terse graph, table and character to depict the process of the technology change or the logic relations between every technological layer related. It can help the user to confirm the development direction of this domain and the key technique to achieve the goal.The technology foresight and the technology roadmap have the same function main body on the corporation level, industry level and nation level. The principles they follow have some differences, but still they have a big part of mutual content. On the type of function, compared with the technology foresight, technology roadmap goes into details. It has much more pertinence and maneuverability.By analyzing the disruptive technology and the roadmap making of the disruptive technology, the thesis expounds the application of technology roadmap in technology foresight domain. And from three cases, which are TRM of Motorola, ITRS and NTRM of Korea, we can see that the process of making the technology roadmap is very active. In other words, it's a flexible method. Making the technology roadmap can lower the complexity of the technology foresight and overcome human's shortcomings of limited capability in dealing with information. The technology roadmap can become a kind of systematical mode. It impels the notion to get much more open, creative and agile. It also can avoid the waste of time and resource, and help us to reduce the risks caused by uncertainty. Thereby, it improves the veracity of technology foresight. To sum up, the technology roadmap is used for a method or tool in technology foresight domain. It can strengthen the influence of the technology foresight movement and the ability to hold the future. It makes the technology foresight to hold the rule of the technology development.At last, the thesis brings forward some measures and advice on some problems, which may be solved by using the technology roadmap in our country and on boosting the launch of the technology foresight effectively.