Study On Scenario Planning Of Technology Roadmapping For Strategic Emerging Industry

In the face of strategic opportunities provided by a new round of economic cycle,fostering and developing strategic emerging industries have become the region’s ma-jor requirements. Therefore, how to provide route guidance effectively is an urgentproblem to be solved. The industry technology roadmap has been proved to be a use-ful technique for industry planning, while scenario planning has significant advantagein coping with uncertainty. By inputting multiple industry scenarios into the industrytechnology roadmap, the integrated multiple scenarios technology roadmap can dealwith the uncertainty in emerging industries, and provide route planning of multiplescenarios for industry development.The aim of this thesis is to construct multiple scenarios technology roadmap forstrategic emerging industries, and make a special effort to study of scenario planning.First, a set of scenario factors could be identified by analyzing the interaction betweenthe framework of industry technology roadmap for analyzing industry structure andthe modified diamond model for analyzing industry environment. And then the hie-rarchy relationships of these factors would be establish by ISM, while various degreeof uncertainty could be separated by MICMAC. Furthermore, use the Markov processanalyzes the scenario variables to get each scenario probability. On the basis of above,the framework of multiple scenarios technology roadmap is set to integrate scenarioplanning with technology roadmap. Finally, the case of Guangdong LED industry cla-rifies the process of analyzing industry scenario factors, in which the obtain scenariovariables and other factors suggest lessons for other emerging industries.