Numerical Forecasting And Visualization Of Storm Surge

Calamity caused by storm surge is the most dangerous in the oceanic disasters. Most of the severe coastal disasters provoked by the strong cyclone in the wide world were caused by the storm surge. Storm surge has so huge damages on economics, human being's life and property that it is of practical importance to conduct the research of forecasting the storm surge.In this paper, the compound 2D coastal ocean model included the factors of fluvial influence, wave, wind stress and tide which was built by Pingxing Ding's group is used to hindcast and forecast the storm surge. The original NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1 background wind is replaced by the higher-resolution QSCAT/NCEP Blended Ocean Winds from Colorado Research Associates to improve the hindcast result. NCEP—WW3 is applied in the forecasting operation.Combining the actual hydrological and meteorological data, a forecasting system of astronomical tide and storm surge was designed and developed. Requirement analysis, functional and interface design, and numerical module calling have been conducted. Man-machine interaction interface is framed by using VB, FORTRAN, and MATLAB to manage the input and output during the forecasting.The integrated visualized storm forecast system was used to forecast the storm surge during the Hurricane Matsa in Aug 2005, the Hurricane Khanun in Sep 2005 with the error at 10%. Moreover, the forecasting result was checked by the Tai Basin Administration.