The Study On The Hengshan Reservoir Forecast And Water Resource Carrying Capacity

Water is one of the rarest natural resources for human's survival and development It is very important to profit from water and avoid water disaster for the development of area's economy . The HengShan reservoir is the impounding project of ZhiXi rivier system and it is the unique largest reservoir in the city of WuXi . The reservoir is used chiefly for flood control and irrigation . In addition , It is water source of YiXing city for living and industry . The researches on reservoir real time forecast and water resource carrying capacity is of significant meanings in preventing flood and increasing efficiency .In this paper , the establishment of flood forecast model , reservoir operation model , the programming of flood forecast software and the water resource carrying capacity of reservoir are researched in the process of researching the HengShan reservoir flood forecast and water resource carrying capacity .The main researches in this paper are as follows:(1) According to the characteristics of HengShan reservoir , the basic framework for a system of HengShan reservoir flood forecaste and operation is established with the principle of area runoff-concentration and reservoir operation(2)This paper presents an API formula with two unknown numbers and digtal UH based on the analysis of API model and UH model .(3) The parameters of API model are calibrated by using genetic algorithm and the results are corrected by AR(P) model .(4)On the basis of the works mentioned above, the author built a reservoir forecast and operation systerm in Visual Basic language .(5) After reviewing literatures on the water resource carrying capacity, concept of the water resource carrying capacity characteristics and influence factors are expounded . Whereafter , the paper predict the quantity of the HengShan reservoir with three different aims , Further presents the formulas between water resource carrying capacity and factor of assurance .