Study On The Optimized Forecasting And Control Of Sewerage Engineering And Its Application In Technology Decision

Security management is an important issue in security management field. The modernized mining security engineering management should unite the forecast and guard, and combine quantitative and qualitative analysis, changing the afterwards management into the beforehand management. It is necessary to find out the characters of hidden security troubles and figure out the developing trend to eliminate the problems on security before the hidden troubles turning into the project accidents.According to the view the dissertation makes the analysis on the guarding and regulating waterways project system in Tong Lu north strip mine. Its purpose is to set up scientific safe appraisal system and the optimized draining countermeasure through researching the rainfall amount degree which influences the draining engineering greatly. This helps the engineering department to grasp the local hydrology space and time statistics change rule and seek the superior economical project plan.Firstly the dissertation establishes the rainfall amount time series stochastic model and uses the time series analysis to confirm the AR model format, which conforms the real data traits in effect. Then the dissertation utilizes stochastic simulation method to simulate the local rainfall characteristic rule. This does not only enrich the practical data but also cuts down the cost to get the data. It provides the effective decision-making. The result of research demonstrates that purpose can be attained when the modeling is effective and the parameter is nice.Secondly this paper integrates Fuzzy and Markov chains to set up the Fuzzy-Markov chains method and principle applied to forecast correctly the tendency of the rainfall in the future by the mining information gained before. It also helps the engineering departments to attain the base of decision-making.Finally considering to make the choice of the optimized countermeasure todefend the flood, the paper comes to make the analysis on the rainfall frequency which is the key factor for the drainage engineering. The main clue covers the calculation of P.M.P and the rain frequency. Then by linking to the data of mining manufacture the paper builds the matrix of game theory for researching the economical and optimized rainfall frequency.The way of solve the systemic engineering problem manifests the union of forecast and countermeasure. It could not apply the instructions in the theory and the practice for the research item but is to be the reference for the other mining security engineering.