Application Research On Prediction Of The Number Of Occupation Safety Training Based On The Gray Markov Chain

In2012, The safety committee of the Safety Council the orders "the decision on strengthening safety training further"(NO.10). It makes clears demands, and focus on improving the quality of safety training, promote the improvement of production safety situation. Occupation safety training developed in recent ten years. The system of laws and regulations, organization structure, government regulations and others of our country occupation safety training consummates gradually, and occupation safety training has made a spurt of progress of development. At the same time, the number of occupation safety training had increased, the safety training work become complex.With the continue to promote the occupation safety training, but the government is fuzzy to the development of occupation safety training, even it can’t determine the contribution of occupation safety to promote safe production quantitatively. The government lacks a scientific theoretical basis to the plan of occupation safety training. Based on this, the paper puts forward combination forecasting model based on the Markov Chain and the Grey Theory, It can hold the development tendency of our country occupation safety training, to provide the decision support for occupation safety training plan.The paper applies Grey prediction model and Markov Chain prediction model, and builds Grey prediction mode、weighted Markov Chain prediction model and Grey-Markov Chain prediction model, compares with three kinds of prediction models. Because of less occupation safety training data, time and state more discrete features, and it’s established that the Gray-Markov Chain prediction model is the most suitable for occupation safety training prediction. In order to realize the complementary advantages of different methods, so the prediction result is more in line with reality.Based on Grey theory and Markov Chain theory, puts forward the Grey theory—Markov Chain prediction model of the occupation safety training, and carries on empirical analysis, and predicts the development tendency of occupation safety training number. It consummates the country occupation safety training statistics. Based on the prediction data of the occupation safety training, the paper discusses the contribution of the occupation safety training to improve the situation of production safety quantitatively, and puts forward the concept of the annual contribution, the average annual contribution, annual cumulative contribution、relative cumulative contribution and calculation method of occupation safety training to promote the production safety. It’s certain to the occupation safety training work.