Study On Water Resources Carrying Capacity In Hangzhou City

As one of the most strategic resources, water resources play a very importantrole in ensuring regional ecological safety and realizing sustainabledevelopment. Water is a sort of reproducible resources and can be sustainabllyused, which needs the harmonization and support of the mulriple system ofnature-society-ecology. It can realize sustainable development in the conditionof reasonable frame and good circulation. Evaluation on regional waterresources capacity is the basis of improving eco-enviromental construction andsocio-economic development and is one of the important factors to decide thedevelopment speed and scale of socio-economic development. Therefore,accurate evaluation on regional water resources carrying capacity is theprecondition and base of scientific protecting and safe utilizing water resources.Starting from the relationship among water resources environment,population and development, this paper analyzes and discusses the connotationand studying principle and thinking of water resources carrying capacity. Thesystem of water resources is a multi-target, multi-variable, multi-loop,nonlinearity feedback system. An integrated approach, system dynamics(SD), isapplied to solve water resources carrying capacity in this paper, the city ofHangzhou has been taken as a case to be studied. On the basis of which, themodeling system of regional water resources carrying capacity study isestablished. Also, the paper presents the main policies and tactics to improveregional water resources carrying capacity.(1) The thesis sums up the research history and actuality of water resourcescarrying capacity. This paper reviews the state of the studies on water resources,the concept, characteristics, quantification and assessment methodology, andpoints out the deficiencies in current study and the future research requirement.(2) SD is a new method in system analysis in modern times, while it has beenincreasingly used in solving many problems in recent years, such as sustainabledevelopment, eco-environment system, water resources carrying capacity, soiland water conservation, and so on. It is a simulating technique used bycomputer to simulate dynamic behavior of society, economy and environment,and a useful tool of scientific prediction. Comparing SD with other methods instudying water resources carrying capacity, different schemes are easier to get,the calculation is much more reasonable, and it can be factually simulated theharmonious development status among society, economy and environment.Thus SD is an innovative and maneuverable method which can be used to studywater resources carrying capacity.(3) Based on balanced relationship of supply and demand of water resourcesbetween 2000 and 2050 in Hangzhou, this paper predicts supply and demand ofwater resources in 2 periods. By comparing the difference of water supply,demand, shortage in 2000 and 2050 in Hangzhou, it systematically analyzesspatial changes in relationship of water supply and demand as well as theircauses. Calculated terms are divided into prediction period of 2030 and 2050.This research can provide basis for the implementation of developmentstrategies of Hangzhou city.(4) The thesis simulates and predicts the relationship of water resources andsocio-economic system in Hangzhou, choosing 7 indices to calculate the waterresources carrying capacity.(5) Based on the principle of fuzzy theory, the fuzzy comprehensiveevaluation model of limit analysis on the development and utilization of waterresources is introduced. The selected evaluation factors include irrigation ratioof total land, coefficient of product water, degree of water exploitation, watersupply and demand modulus, per capita water supply, ecological water use ratio.Taking Hangzhou city of zhejiang province as an example, the evaluated resultsshow that the current water exploitation and use have reached a relative highdegree. Under the present water exploitation conditions, the stage of waterresources development in Hangzhou is transition. Fuzzy synthetical evaluationabandons the two valued logic which enables intermediate assessment betweenone state and another state, so applying the method to the limit analysis of waterresources is more scientific and accurate.