The Study Of Ecological Capacity Based On Ecological Footprint

The theory and methodology of the ecological capacity(ECC)are a major matter of ecology,and the supporting theory for sustainable development.And has been of real applying value for the establishment of a perfect regional sustainable development theory,also becoming one of the frontiers and hot issues of sustainable development research.The paper discussed the Ecological Footprint methodology,a biophysical assessment method of ECC.The Ecological Footprint(EF)called as ECC demand measures people' use of natural capital. Based on the analysis of the theory,indices,mathematic models,strengths and weaknesses of EF methodology,it establish the new mechanism,indices,models and methods of quantitative research of ECC in a regional ecological-economic system,and get a series of new conclusions.The main conclusions as follows:1.EF methodology itself is a static behavior without a time variable and therefore cannot be used to quantitatively analyze the spatiotemporal pattern and the development trend of EF and ECC(supply) time series of a given region in spatiotemporal dimension.In order to research the dynamic trend of ECC in the past and future,in time dimension,the paper establish the time dynamic models of EF and ECC,and present two new quantitative estimate indices called as "change rate" and "scissors difference",which describe quantitatively the development trends of EF and ECC and the difference between the both trends to reflect the state of ecological sustainability in a long time series.2.It present the ecological carrying-pressing index based on EF methodology and the basal determinant mode of ECC,and analyze its meaning in ecological economics.3.For a case study of Chongqing,with the EF methodology and the dynamic analysis modes of ECC, calculated the per capita EF,ECC,change rate,scissors difference,ecological carrying-pressing index and ecological budget time series and demonstrated the dynamic trends of them in Chongqing for 1997-2005.As the results:1997-2005,the per capita EF was bigger than the per capita ECC,showing that the ecological state of Chongqing was the ecological deficit;The scissors differences growing from 1997 to 2005 showing that the difference between both trends was increasing rapidly;the ecological carrying-pressing index was increasing greatly 1997-2005.Chongqing humanity' EF is shown in 4.206 number of Chongqing in 2005.All of results showed that the difference between the EF and ECC in Chongqing was growing in the past.The natural capital consumption of human had exceeded the ECC limits.The development state of Chongqing was unsustainability.4.For a case study of Chongqing,with the EF methodology and the time dynamic analysis modes of ECC,calculated the per capita EF,ECC,change rate,scissors difference,ecological carrying-pressing index and ecological budget time series and demonstrated the time pattern and the dynamic trends of them in Chongqing for 1997-2005.This paper quantitatively forecasted the EF, ECC,ecological budget and otherwise of Chongqing,and analyzed the time patterns and dynamic trends of ecological sustainability for the coming 10 years.According to results,some government countermeasures of sustainable development of ECC against rising unsustainability were suggested.It is pointed out that there are research needs to improve the EF methodology.By making the method more complete,this EF methodology could evolve from being largely of research use to become a strategic tool for policy analysis.