Senile Respiratory Failure Patients Receiving Mechanical Ventilation Prognostic System

[Object] To design a special prognostic system for senile respiratory failure patients receiving mechanical ventilation .[Methods] We retrospectively analysed 238 data for senile respiratory failure patients receiving mechanical ventilation and random divided into two groups: model and validation groups. We screen risk factors which affect the outcomes of respiratory failure patients receiving mechanical ventilation successively by univariate analysis and multivariate analysis, the complementary scoring system was made by giving screened prognosis factors a definite score range. The special evaluation system(SRFMV prognositic system)for senile respiratory failure patients receiving mechanical ventilation was founded through Logistic regressing equation, which combines APACHE II scoring evaluation andcomplementary scoring system. [Results](1) Oxygenation index, PEEP, tidal volume,phlegmy quantity andcharacter, pulmonary auscultation were associated with prognosis of respiratory failure receiving mechanical ventilation. Mortality probability equation:(2) The sensitivity,specificity,ROC_AUC,X² of Lemeshow-Hosmer goodness of fit of SRFMV prognostic system for the validation group are 0.878,0.821,0.911,13.77;which were all improved than APACHE II (0.818,0.771,0.860,11.808).(3) The accuracy of SRFMV prognostic system and APACHE II formodel group are respectively 0.862,0.794.[Conclusion] SRFMV prognostic system has better sensitivity and specificity; the predicted death rate have better consistency with observed death rate, which can be used in predicting mortality risk for senile respiratory failure patients receiving mechanical ventilation.