| Objective: This study, by analyzing the status of health manpower resource (HMR) of Datong city, was trying to find out the main problems which have existed in the health manpower resources (HMR) and propose the corresponding countermeasures. To make preliminary assessment of rationality and analyze the influencing factor of HMP. Then Use ARIMA (Autoregressive integrated moving average) to forecast the number of the future health personnel (HP) in Datong city.Method: Using the self-design questionnaire to survey the status of HMR in Datong in 2006. The descriptive study of epidemiology was used in analyzing proportion of the age, education, technical post, area district and the dynamic trends of the HP for its development rate in 1997-2006 of HP. Use transfer function model to analyze the influencing factors of HMR in Datong. The demands of HP were estimated and predicted by ARIMA.Result: The data showed that in 2006, there were 18898 health personnel in total in Datong city, including 16359 health technological personnel (HTP, 86.56%), 7888 doctor and 3882 registered nurse in Datong city. The ratio for doctor and nurse was 1:0.49. 80.28% of HTP are centralized in medical establishment, the proportions of the HTP for town health center, CDC institution, Maternal and Child Health faculty, health supervision, and community clinics were 8.74%, 3.51%, 2.16%, 2.10%, and 3.21%.The number of HTP, doctors and nurses per 1000 persons on average were 5.21, 2.51, and 1.23 respectively. The number of HTP, doctors and nurses per kilometer on average were 1.16, 0.56, and 0.28 respectively. The numbers of health technological personnel (HTP), doctors and nurses increased at the rates of 2.03%, 2.17% and 3.96% respectively during 1997-2006. The numbers of HP, health technological personnel (HTP), doctors and nurses per 1000 persons increased at the rates of 0.89%, 1.02%, 3.65% respectively during 1997-2006. The rate of the nurse was fastest.The proportion of 35-44(36.79%) group of years of age construction is most. The most of HP graduated from junior colleges (39.15%). 29.06% of HP graduated from technical- secondary schools and 20.00% from colleges. 7.11% of HP (1163 persons) had the high technical ranks.The result of transfer function model is indicating that the number of HTP is correlative with itself, population and bed. Using ARIMA the number of HTP in Datong city in 2008, 2010 and 2015 were expected to be 16892, 17502 and 19035 respectively. The number doctors in 2008, 2010 and 2015 were calculated to be 8271, 8593, 93983 respectively, and the number of nurses were 5175, 5480, 6241 respectively.Conclusion: The main problems of distributing of HMP in Datong city were as followers: The number of HMP was high, but the distribution of HTP is illogicality. The population distribution and geographic distribution is disconnecting acutely. The ratio between doctors and nurses is over highly. The non-balance between city and country was significant. Both quantity and quality of the HTP for community clinic, public health and Maternal and Child Health is fewer, where are lack of high-rank medical specialists. The educational level should to be developed. So we should further make efforts to control the total number of HP properly,allocate the manpower resources reasonably under the health manpower developing strategy, strengthen the work of cultivating and fetching in the medical talents, which aims to enforce the health undertaking in Datong city to speedily develop in balance and harmony.The transfer function model indicated the manpower resource is related with populations, bed and economic. Combining the factors of development on economy and population, the forecasting result of ARIMA was modified. |
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