| According guidelines laid down by the 17th National Congress of Chinese Communist Party, Party Central Committee and State Department promulgated"opinions on deepening the reform of medicine and health care systems"on march 17, 2009, which is to establish medicine and health care systems of socialism with Chinese–characteristics, realize the goal of that everyone could take basic medical and health service gradually, improve physique of entire people. Public health undertaking is a major issue which is of great concern to people, related to health of hundreds of millions people, related to all happiness. How to deepen the reform of medicine and health care systems, promote a healthy development of medicine and health care, adapt both with social economic development and the level of health demand, all these were certain to involve planning and allocation of health human resources.This study by analyzing status of health human resource (HHR) in our country and contrast of health human resource between city and countryside, was trying to find out the problems which had existed in the distribution of health human resources and propose the corresponding countermeasures. Meanwhile, the feasible forecasting models that adapted to the development of HHR in the whole, city and countryside were established on the base of current data and used to forecast the number of health personnel (HP) in the future years.The descriptive study of epidemic was used in analyzing amount and structure of HP in 2008, the emphases were structure of specialty, age, education, technical post, area district and contrast between city and country. Then dynamic trend of the HP for its development during 1985-2008 was analyzed from amount, proportion and quality. The demands of HP were estimated and predicted by 4 statistical models which were PGM (1,3), ARIMA, N order polynomial regression model and weight average combination model. The feasible forecasting model was determined by contrast of forecasting results.The data showed that there were 6169050 health personnel in total in our country, including 5030038 health technological personnel (HTP, 81.54%). But the diathesis of health technological personnel was low on the whole. The proportion of graduate students was 1.6%. The most of HP (43.3%) graduated from technical-secondary schools. 29.2%of HP graduated from junior colleges and 15.5% from colleges.7.34% of HP had the high technical ranks. The most of HP (37.72%) had the support technical ranks. The structure of HHR in our country was unreasonable. The ratio for doctor and nurses was 1:0.79. The ratio in city was 1:0.88; the ratio in countryside was 1:0.62. 62.46% of HTP were centralized in hospitals. The distribution of HHR is unreasonable. The numbers of HTP per 1000 persons in the east area, middle area and west area in the country were 4.57, 3.46 and 3.24 persons respectively. The numbers of HTP per 1000 persons in the east area is significantly higher than in the middle and west. The numbers of HTP per 1000 persons in city is 2-4 times more than in countryside. The numbers of health technological personnel(HTP),doctors, nurses and the numbers of each one of them per 1000 persons show increased trend in the whole, city and countryside during 1985-2008 respectively. According to the growth rate the fastest is city, the second is country, the slowest is countryside. The proportion between doctors and nurses also shows increased trend. As well the fastest growth rate is city, the second is country, and the slowest is countryside. The proportion of health personnel of city is increasing; on the contrary the proportion of countryside is decreasing. The diathesis of health technological personnel in the countryside is lower than that in city. Health technological personnel who had higher education and higher technical post mainly concentrated in the hospital of large cities. Establish the base of PGM (1, 3) model, ARIMA model, 3 order polynomial regression model and finally weight average combination model, and then calculate HP of per model. It forecasted that the need of HTP was 5294282, 7237584, 6564439 and 6915411 respectively in 2016 and standard deviation of weight average combination model is smallest relatively. So weight average combination model is most suitable for short demand forecast of HP. By weight average combination model the numbers of HTP in whole, city and countryside were calculated.The main problems of distributing of HHR in our country were as followers:①the number of HHR was high, but the diathesis of health technological personnel was low on the whole. It is lacking of talents but number so that it seriously affects the quality of health service.②The structure of HHR in our country was unreasonable, such as the proportion between doctors and nurses, doctors and epidemic prevention personnel and the proportion in the structure technical post.③The distribution of HHR is unreasonable; the lack of HHR coexists with the phenomenon of waste.④The non-balance between city and country was significant. The key problem of our health undertaking reform was how to improve the quality and diathesis of HHR in countryside.Combining the factors of development on economy and population, we use weight average combination model to forecast the HHR so that it could increase forecasting accuracy and improve model application. This study did not forecast the health personnel in different professionals, ages, occupations and departments, which could do in the future. For example, it could forecast the demands of different education and different professional's graduates to provide more full and accurate basis for medical education. |
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