Research On Co-evolution Of Emerging Technologyand Emerging Industry Based On System Dynamics

The progress of social change is accelerated by the evolution of the emergingtechnologies and the emerging industries. The national economy is significantly influenced bythe emerging industries. There is an unstable co-evolution between the emerging technologiesand the emerging industries. On one hand, the progress of the emerging technologies resultsin the increase of the diversification of technical products, the improvement of the industrialproductivity and the change of the market demand which have a huge impact on the evolutionof the emerging industries. On the other hand, the progress of the emerging industries exerts atremendous influence on the emerging technologies through a variety of factors. The policymakers can optimize the policies relevant to the emerging technologies and the emergingindustries based on the authentic understanding of the co-evolutionary law of the emergingtechnologies and the emerging industries.The analysis paradigm of the co-evolution theory is used firstly to study theco-evolutionary law of the emerging technologies and the emerging industries based on theliterature research. The paper systematically analyses the co-evolution based on fourperspectives. The co-evolution of the emerging technologies and the emerging industries isdivided into four stages.The frontier of the co-evolution system is confirmed by using the system dynamicstheory. And the structure of causal relations of the co-evolution system is studied according tothe system dynamics model of the emerging technologies and the emerging industries.In the aspect of empirical study, the information and communication technology isselected as an example. The characteristics of the co-evolution system are analyzed based onthe comprehensive simulation tests which reveal the various relationships between manyfactors and the whole system. The paper puts forward two countermeasures to promote thedevelopment of the emerging technology and the emerging industry based on the simulationresults.