Research On The Evaluation Method Of Indirect Economic Losses Caused By Meteorological Disasters

The increasingly frequent meteorological disasters have become serious challenges, which need to be urgently coped with, to the sustainable development of our country. While how many losses did these disasters bring? It has attracted the attention of scholars from different fields since 1990s. Although the influence mechanism of meteorological disasters is complex, the evaluation methods of the losses caused by the disasters are gradually leading to mature for the exploration and purifying by numerous experts and scholars and mainly focus on the following aspects:(1) proportional coefficient method; (2) econometric model; (3) Input-Output model; (4) computable general equilibrium model; (5) linear programming model; (6) field investigation. For the moment, there haven’t been a set of systemic references to the evaluation methods of indirect economic losses caused by meteorological disasters in the existing researches, and the combination of qualitative study and quantitative analysis has not received enough attention.From the angles of cost saving, practical feasibility and the reliability of the results, this paper selected three methods that are suitable for quantitative evaluation of the economic losses brought by meteorological disasters from the above approaches, and they are respectively Harold-Domar model, which is the representative in econometrics, Input-Output model and computable general equilibrium model. By taking one empirical representative meteorological disaster,which happened in a large scale, as an example, these three methods have been adapted correspondingly. The specific improvement process can be reflected in the following aspects:(1) With regard to Harold-Domar model, the paper considered different effect cycle and different social discount rate to reflect the impact of index selection on loss evaluation. (2) Considering the impact of meteorological disasters will not be confined to a single department, the paper generalized the original Input-Output model by taking into account multi related sectors’loss conduction and discussed the long-term effect trend of the disaster and finally gave the classification results of the affected departments. (3) As to the computable general equilibrium model, disaster impact parameters obtained from direct economic losses and corresponding departments’output value were constructed and been integrated into the model.By this way, the impact of the meteorological disaster on the economy can be reflected by the changes in production efficiency.The paper compared the applicability of the above approaches by empirical analysis and got the following results.Firstly, Harold-Domar model is suitable for the preliminary judgment of the loss caused by the meteorological disaster and the calculation process is simple and fast. However, the evaluation result is slightly rough and can only give a gross value without details.Secondly, Input-Output model is a good choice in terms of cost and time saving and the loss can be refined to each department by this model. Thus the evaluation result is more accurate compared with econometric model. While, this model assumes that there is a linear relationship between the input and output, which is a shortage.Thirdly, computable general equilibrium model not only covers the advantages of Input-Output model, but presents in a form of nonlinear and nested mode. It can elasticity give the changes of multi response indicators form the macro and micro economy level. What a pity is that this model has a high demand to the data. Besides, the whole solving process takes longer than the former two approaches,which leads to a lower efficiency.Based on the post disaster, the paper talked about the disaster reduction countermeasures and pointed out that disaster prevention and mitigation needs systematic cooperation and support of institution, technology, role orientation and other aspects.