Analysis Of The Economic Effect Of Chinese Electricity Price Fluctuation Based On DCGE Model

As an important part of China's “energy-economy-environment” system,electricity has made outstanding contributions to the sustainable development of the national economy.Electricity price is a significant economic variable that affects the whole economy,people's livelihood and the effective allocation of resources.With the rapid development of Chinese market-oriented reform,the reform of electricity price marketization has achieved significant results,and the reform process has been gradually deepening.At the same time,there are some changes in macro and micro factors that will have a certain impact on electricity price in the process of the market-oriented reform of electricity price,inducing fluctuations in electricity price,and then transmitting them on to the “energy-economy-environment” system,affecting the coupled development of elements within the system.Therefore,simulating the impact of electricity price fluctuations on the economic system under the marketization mechanism in advance will play a enlightening role in deepening electricity marketization reform,improving the formulation of electricity price policies,and promoting the healthy development of the industry.Based on the theories of Input-Output,SAM and CGE,this article constructs the 2017 SAM table,and builds a dynamic computable general equilibrium model under the GAMS software environment,then sets the closure condition in line with the marketization mechanism.Setting related parameters and scenarios to simulate the short-term and long-term effects of electricity price fluctuations on macro-economic and industrial structures.The research in this paper shows that: Under market mechanism of electricity price,(1)in general,the rise in electricity prices has a tightening effect on the macro economy,which will increase sector price,reduce sector output,restrain GDP growth,restrain import and export,and reduce consumption and savings in the main structure.The decline in electricity prices has boosted the macro-economy,and the impact of electricity price fluctuations has become more profound over time.(2)When the electricity price rises,we must pay attention to the price of primary energy to avoid the spiral upward trend of fuel prices with electricity price,which will cause inflation.When the electricity price drops,we must pay attention to high-pollution industries with excess capacity to avoid further in crease in output levels and worsen the environment.(3)The electricity price fluctuations on the industrial structure,the secondary industry is more affected and more sensitive in the short-term,and the sensitivity of the tertiary industry to electricity price fluctuations is increasing in the long-term.(4)Considering the complex substitution relationship between industries and the time lag of electricity price transmission,the impact of electricity price fluctuations on some sector output,sector price and other variables.There is a difference between short-term and long-term changes.(5)Considering the status situation of Chinese power supply structure,there is a difference in the impact of thermal power price and clean energy price fluctuations on the economic system,and thermal power has a stronger influence than clean energy power.