Impact Assessment Of Air Pollution On The Population Health In Major Cities Of China

With rapid growth in economy,China witnesses increasing environmental burden and frequent pollution events (haze, photochemical smog,etc.), which have caused great harm to public. However,the air pollution in metropolitan areas is severer than other places,that has produced higher cost of public’s health as well.Numerous studies proved that major air pollutants (SO2,N02,PM10and PM2.5) could injure human’s organs, systems and even induce cancer. Though a large number of studies had evaluated the heath impact of air pollution, more studies are still needed in considering its complexity,especially in China.On one hand,the basic research on the long-term exposure-response coefficient are scattered and differed distinctively in results of studies on Chinese cities. On the other hand,majority of current studies focused on the impact assessment of air particle pollution, thus lack of a comprehensive view of the health impact of air pollution.Besides,due to the differences in the pollution level,pollutant composition and population structure etc., health impact of air pollution among different cities should be different.Therefore,integrating latest study outcomes, health impact assessment of various air pollutants on the basis of diverse pollution level and population distribution,is of great value in recognizing the health impact of air pollution,setting scientific goals of air quality and stimulating the control of air pollution.This study includes following contents:(1)Meta analysis was applied to combine the long-term exposure studies from both domestic and abroad to obtain synthesized coefficients.(2)Based on the annual population, concentration of air pollutants (SO2、NO2、 PM10), total death rate and mortality rate of diseases of27capital cities in2003-2012,derived from the Statistical Yearbook, Health Statistics Yearbook and Environmental Bulletin, impact of the change of air pollutants’concentration in the past10years on the mortality was assessed.(3) Based on the annual population, concentration of PM10, total death rate and mortality rate of diseases of104cities in2012and PM2.5/PM10value in2013,annual concentration of PM2.5in2012was estimated and the impact of particulate matter pollution(PM10and PM2.5) on the mortality was evaluated.(4) Compared with the pollution level in2012,the health benefits of achieving different air quality goals in2017and2030were estimated in Jingjinji area, Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta.Results show that:(1) The ratio of the deaths caused by air pollutants in the total deaths had been decreasing gradually with the concentration of pollutants lowering,while the mortality rate caused by air pollution may rise due to the effect of the other mortality-related factors. In general, as population steadily grew,23to48thousand,19to28thousand and310to400thousand deaths still occurred due to S02,N02,PM10in27capital cities in2003-2012,which accounted0.9%-2.7%、1.6%-3.4%、30%-40%of total mortality respectively.(2)104cites in China saw about0.93million deaths due to PM10,accounting26%in total deaths,while PM2.5contributed0.78million deaths,accounting84.7%in deaths for PM10.Because of the different effect of mortality-related factors,mortality caused by air pollution were relatively high in northeastern,southwestern cities,while low in heavy polluted areas,like Beijing,Tianjin and other northwestern cities.(3)If the goal of the "Air Pollution Control Plan" could be reached in that three metropolitan areas in2017,96thousand premature deaths could be avoided due to the reduction of PM2.5compared with maintaining the concentration level of2012and mortality rate reduced by6%. If the air quality in2017could meet the Chinese standard,0.18million premature deaths could be avoided and the mortaliy rate reduced by11%.Besides,there are some shortages in this study:insufficient literature for meta analysis, inconsistency among population, death and exposure data, uncertainties on concentration-response curves,which should be paid great attention in the future study on health impact assessment of air pollution.