Study On Dynamic Monitoring And Prediction Of Land Use Change In Shihezi Reclamation Area By Remote Sensing

Land use/Land cover is the most outstanding landscape sign in the top layer system of the earth, and the research on the changes of it, which we call LUCC, has become one of the hot points in the study of geography and its relevant subject. The Shihezi reclamation area was selected as the research object. In the study, the technology of RS and GIS was adapted to process the each image through preconditioning and enhancement handling, then adapted the method of extraction by supervised classification and visual judgments together, realized the higher precision extraction of land use information. Based on analyzing and appraising the current land use, this paper adopted the dynamic change models to analyze the station temporal change of land use from 2000 to 2009, then sleeked the dynamic change law of land use and applied Markov model to predict the tendency of the land use change of the Shihezi reclamation area in future, so as to offer basis to sustainable make use of regional land and revise the land use general plan. The major contents and research results was as following:(1) This paper expounds the land use/cover change on the study signification, and explained some concepts of LUCC. The domestic and international evolution about the study of the LUCC is also presented. It's figured out that the classification of the LUCC is the first step of the analysis and realization of the LUCC.The summarization of the remote sensing classified techniques presently is based on the above-mentioned study. Based on the integrated techniques of Remote Sensing and Geographic Information System, the Supervised Classification of four Landsat/TM images which are screened in the year of 2000,2002,2007 and 2009 is accomplished in ERDAS software.(2) Based on analyzing and appraising the current land use, this paper adopted the dynamic change models to analyze the spatio-temporal change of land use from 2000 to 2009 with the powerful GIS spatial analysis functions. The utilize types of the ground and diversification table in Shihezi reclamation area are also established. And then with the conversion analytics among the different types, Conversion Matrix which will quantificational analyze the diversion's characteristics of the LUCC are acquired.(3) Based on the dynamic change law of land use, this paper applied Markov model to predict the tendency of the land use change of the Shihezi reclamation area in future. The studying findings were:from 2000 to 2009, the pasture and the unutilized land in Shihezi reclamation area still would show a tendency to reduce within one period in the future. The unutilized land reduced the range still for being largest. The cultivated land, traffic land, residential areas and industrial and mining s land would present the state of increase, the cultivated land at the largest range among them. The forest land and water area increase little.