China's Thermal Power Industry, Coal Consumption, So <sub> 2 </ Sub> Emissions From Space-time Dynamic Analysis

Power industry is an important part of the energy industry, which is the most crucial basic industry, supporting and promoting social and economic development. Our country's power industry is dominated by thermal power, which accounts for about 80% of the total installed capacity for a long time. Coal consumption and sulfur dioxide emission in thermal power industry is large. Coal consumption in thermal power industry accounts for more than 50% and sulfur dioxide emission accounts for 52%. Compared with developed countries, our country's power industry still has some gaps in energy efficiency and pollution control level. The main reason is a high proportion of small thermal power units. Therefore, China needs to optimize the thermal power unit type and firmly implement the policy of shutting down small unit. Thermal power industry contributes the main part to our country's energy saving and emission reduction, which has great practical significance for building a resource-saving and environment-friendly industrial system and ultimately achieving sustainable development.This paper systematically collects time-series and provincial panel data of thermal power industry in China, constructs double triangle model, and analyzes the relationship among power generation, coal consumption and sulfur dioxide emission.In the analysis, total index and intensity index are studied. On this basis, the paper further researches the green gap of thermal power industry between our country and developed country in order to provide a reliable scientific basis for energy saving and emission reduction in electric power industry. Through the above research and analysis, the paper draws the following conclusions:(1)In recent 20 years, coal consumption and power generation have been increasing synchronously, which indicates that thermal power industry is still at the expansion stage. With the growth of coal consumption or power generation, sulfur dioxide emission fluctuates regularly in accordance with every Five-Year Plan, which reflects the dynamic game process of economic growth and environmental protection. Coal consumption intensity and sulfur dioxide emission intensity are both generally dropping, whose changes are affected by power unit scale and environmental policy.(2)Among every province, if power generation equipment and technology don't change, coal consumption and sulfur dioxide emission will increase with the growth of thermal power generation. When the scale of thermal power industry is becoming larger, the elastic coefficient of coal consumption and sulfur dioxide emission are decreasing gradually. Sulfur dioxide emission elastic coefficient is decreasing even more. This is due to elastic decline caused by scale economy. According to the intensity of coal consumption and sulfur dioxide emission, the 30 provinces can be divided into high, medium, low districts. The regional difference is related to economy and technology.(3)During recent 20 years, the intensity of coal consumption and sulfur dioxide emission always has green gap with international advanced level. However, the gap is decreasing. In 2009, coal consumption intensity and sulfur dioxide emission intensity are both 0.16, close to advanced level. In 2008, coal consumption intensity in Beijing, Hainan, and Shanghai has reached or exceeded advanced level. The index of other 27 provinces still has certain green gap. Sulfur dioxide emission intensity in Beijing, Hainan, and Jiangsu has reached or exceeded advanced level. As to other 22 provinces, this index still has green gap. After integrating the coal consumption and sulfur dioxide emission intensity green gap, we draw the conclusion:Beijing, Hainan, and Shanghai etc. have little overall green gap. Zhejiang, Tianjin, and Hebei etc. have medium green gap. The other 13 Provinces have large green gap, which indicates that they have more energy saving and emission reduction space.This paper has following two innovations:①Power generation, coal consumption and sulfur dioxide emission are considered as an interconnected dynamic system. The "double triangle" model is built in thermal power industry.②From aggregate and intensity indexes, the paper makes a dynamic spatial and temporal analysis to thermal power industry in our country. On this basis, the green gap was further researched in thermal power industry between our country and developed country, which provides a reliable scientific basis for energy saving and emission reduction in power industry.