Research On Technology Prediction About The CBM Mining Method Based On Patent Map And TRIZ

Advanced technology forecasting methods must be established on the basis of the existing technology generalization as the powerful weapons to promote the social innovation ability. Patent are the important information carrier of the technical innovation and the prominent manifestation of technical information. Technical analysis and prediction can use the patent map which is a efficient way to reveal the patent information, then it can proven the trend and direction of technology development and look for the technical breakthrough combining the technology system evolution laws of TRIZ(Theory of Inventive Problem Solving) which is the innovation theory. It has the significant practical significance to effectively guide the technological innovation.The mining of CBM is the industry with the characteristics of high technology intensive, capital concentration and strong correlation between upstream and downstream. The industry ability and innovation level are the driving force of a part of its region and even the whole national economic and social development, which reflects the national technology level and innovation ability. At present the basic theory and technology research of domestic CBM mining have the great progress, many foreign mature technology is introduced, but mature CBM mining theory which is suitable for China’s complex geological conditions and mature technology of CBM mining with independent intellectual property rights are still less. So, it is an urgent need to analyze the CBM existing technology in China, actively carrying out the prospective study with technical prediction and selection of key technology, effectively assisting the work of technology innovation, in order to provide much-needed technology prediction theory and method for the independent innovation of CBM mining enterprises.The main content of this paper is as follow:(1) The basic thought and main process of technology forecasting model are put forward, and the process is specific analysis. Firstly, using the patent analysis software to extract the key technical characteristics of technology system, and clustering them for child elements in the system, then using Logistic model and patent estimates method to respectively forecast the technical maturity, and using the technology evolution and radar map to paint technology development route, presenting technology development trend in the future.(2) Screening of patent on the basis of relevant patent retrieval of China’s CBM mining method to get close correlation of patent. The technical system is divided into of space dimension, mechanism and material elements in accordance with the mining bearing, mining methods and mining equipment. Respectively predicting the technical maturity and determining the current CBM mining method of China is in the end of growth period and evolving to the mature period, putting forward the technology evolution route such as the development direction of system integration and technology flexible.From the perspective of theory, this article firstly uses patent map and TRIZ theory to construct the prediction model which is applied to the prediction of CBM mining method. It innovative puts forward to cluster the technical key words into child elements of technology systems and respectively uses Logistic model and patent measuring method to forecast the maturity of technology system and elements. Then it gives the technology evolution route following the eight laws of evolutionary, and uses the technology evolution potential chart to give advice for the development of the future. In this paper, it gives a technology prediction of the CBM mining method with prospective and planning, not only effectively guiding the technological innovation, has enriching the theoretical system of technology forecasting.