Jiangchuan County Environmental And Economic System Of Sd Model

With the rapid development between the process of industrialization and the expansion of urbanization at the contemporary era,environmental pollution,ecological damage,exhaust of natural resources have been become the global and the important issues,it attaches recognition and attention of the relevant international organizations,governments and many scholars both inside and outside the world,and form a special study on this new subject-Sustainable Development.On the regional resources,environment,economic development and the relationship are already both the focus contents in the study of the sustainable development and the hot issues among the correlative studies such as regional economics,economic geography,ecological economics and so on.The Karst region in the southwest is not only the rivers water conservation and ecologically vulnerable areas of coupling,but also the bottom topography and economic uplift of the superposition zone,is also an enrichment region of resources and poverty as well,which the sustainable development relations to the national balance of regional development,economic prosperity and social stability,and many other issues,so,it has an extremely important practical significance.It is studied by the principal component analysis and system dynamics in Coordinate development of environment and economic system in Jiangchuan County.Firstly,it clarifies the purpose and significance of the study and reviewed the relevant theories;Secondly,Using principal component analysis to calculate the regional coordination degree,evaluate the coordinated development level between environment and economy in this area.Based on the evaluation,the environment and economic system's model is built by system dynamics' theories and method.It is assisted with some other methods,such as Regression analysis.With the appropriative software of Vensim,the model can be built successfully.With the model's simulations,the modes and the suggestions are put forward of environment and economy in Jiangchuan County.Through the study, we can get some conclusions as follows:(1) Using principal component analysis,we can get to know the present condition of Ecological Environment and economic system in Jiangchuan County.The results of Comprehensive evaluation about the ecological environment show that:between 2000 and 2005, the ecological environment in Jiangchuan has improved;after 2005,the results show being worse.The comprehensive evaluation of economic development shows that:between 2000 and 2007,the economic development of Jiangchuan has maintained an upward trend,the comprehensive score rose to 4.1619 in 2007 form -3.0075 in 2000,and especially the economic growth is obvious after 2003. (2) The results of the evaluation about the ecological environment and economic(C_v) showed that between 2000 and 2007,the coordination degree of ecological environment and economic in Jiangchuan is Instability.The coordination degree is becoming low form 2000 to 2002,and which is opposite between 2002 and 2005.The coordination degree is lower than 0.4 between 2002 and 2004,indicating that the coordination of the state is poor during this time. The coordination degree is becoming low after 2005.(3) The paper analyzes the environmental and economical system with the SD method. Through the simulation,we design four different development schemes----the natural develop model,the rapid growth of population and economic model,the coordinate development of environment and economy model,the environment protection model.At last,we choose the third model as the direction of Jiangchuan County in the future.Because this model can coordinate environmental and economic development,in accordance with the model,the environment and the economy in Jiangchuan is sustainable in future.In this model,the natural population growth rate is 0.005,the industrial growth rate is 0.23,the coefficient of environmental protection investment is 0.04,and the change rate of cultivated land is -0.006.(4) Based on the simulation,we put forward some suggestions.At present,the economic growth in the natural development model is at the cost of environmental pollution.To promote the coordinated development between environment and the economy,the government should take some acations,such as,implementing "One lake three circle layer" projects,increasing environmental protection investment and carrying out regional planning and governance of space.