A Study On The Fertility Level Of Chinese Minority Population

Minority of fertility level is an important part of demography research, which has a vital significance on whole population policy and economic planning. However, because of census data distortion caused by subjective or objective factors, ethnic real fertility levels have been always uncertain. In this paper we revise the ethnic mortality in the 2010 and 2000 census data by life table technique, obtain more accurate birth population in the 2000 and 1990 census data applying population queue method, and then based on revised data above we obtain the ethnic total fertility rate in the 1990 and 2000 census data. The ethnic total fertility level in the sixth national census is roughly estimated according to change rule of the total fertility rate in the 1990 and 2000 census data. Finally, clustering and feature analysis are conducted on the ethnic total fertility rates in the three national censuses (1990,2000 and 2010). The main conclusions are as follows.Firstly, during the year of 1990 to 2010 in China, ethnic fertility levels have already greatly changed, that is, the ethnic total fertility rate generally declines from the fourth national census to the fifth nation census, due to better implementation of fertility policy.Secondly, about 80% of minorities in China have a higher fertility level than the national average. Although the total fertility rate get lower in the previous census, the overall downward trend in minority appears linear relationship with Hans which is tightly associated with less population base and national looser fertility policy.Thirdly, some minorities in our country have fewer people and lower fertility level, for example Tatar, Xibe, Hoche and other ethnic groups. Their population is less than 100,000 and fertility rate is below the national average, because of living environment, social policy and human choice. So our government should support minority greatly and encourage fertility for the prosperity of all nations in our country.Fourthly, the same as the low birth rate of ethnic minorities, Manchu and Russian have different reasons. Manchu has a national agreement on having fewer children because of almost localization and Russian has a lower fertility level mainly due to the living environment, high latitudes and cold environment, which population has been less than 100000.Fifthly, the ultra-low fertility level problem of Korean women also reminds us to guard against the presence of low fertility trap. The government should continue to improve fertility policy with the development of social and demographic pattern, do focus on individual nation if necessary.