Major Meteorological Disaster Risk Evaluation Of Heilongjiang Province Based On Information Diffusion Theroy

This article selects the Heilongjiang 1971～2005 74 to 78 stations five - Septemberprecipitation data, the six - August temperature material, months thunderstorms days, wind, on adaily basis, through daily snowfall data needed quantization process, basic data using informationdiffusion theory of Heilongjiang province respectively droughts, floods, chilling damage,thunderstorms, wind, blizzard disaster risk assessment and analysis, combining GIS technology toproduce risk division, risk figure. The main contents and conclusions are as follows:(1) the meteorological disasters happen according to different rules and study area defined region characteristics, according to the disaster degree, in disaster standard to confirm theanalysis of all kinds of severe weather characteristics on the basis of violence and frequency, using history happened with disaster degree weather phenomenon establish extreme weather events, severe weather and flood degree, and the relationship between sure different levelsof disasters.(2) Using the information diffusion theory firstly risk estimation, single light comprehensive risk assessment last. In the light of the characteristics, according to different to the discrete domain method and can calculate calibration different extent of probability value, disaster risk by using GIS technique demolished.(3) Single light risk assessment results. Heilongjiang drought and waterlogging are concentrated in providing the southwest high. General drought mainly providing the southern west high, with strong drought mainly providing the southeast, high flood and waterlogging commonly providing strong southern west mainly are high. Drought and waterlogging disaster index risk assessment results show that, with the increase of affected index, the affected riskgradually decrease, drought disaster risk from southwest to northeast index of flood disasterindex, gradually reduce the risk to the north, in north-central around gradually decreasing process. Overall, Heilongjiang drought disaster risk is higher than flood disaster risk; Heilongjiang general providing scattered distribution of chilling damage in high central and southwestern, the severe chilling damages appear range, concentrate, high-risk into north than south. Together, Heilongjiang province for north and east of chilling damage in the south and the west than; Along with the increase of thunderstorm, Heilongjiang thunderstorms days at risk have distinct regional difference, thunderstorm appears different under the condition of the high risk of, the thunderstorm are concentrated in the central area in south central area, located at the lowest and the eastern plain; To 10.8 p m/s winds material based in Heilongjiang province, the author draws a conclusion that the winds stay interannual variability has obviousphase and persistent, since the 1970s to the early 21st century decrease. Heilongjiang happen 1d, 2d, 3d and 4d winds, high since the risk of providing the Songnen plains to Sanjiang plain region, mainly by a south-central ribbons, low in providing the concentration distribution of the Daxinganling, Yichun, Mudanjiang, southern district. Overall, there were strongwinds disasters in central region, and have a higher risk of forest and mountain appear lower than the risk winds plains; Heilongjiang blizzard concentrated in spring, winter season foryears, two days of 2 ~ 32d blizzard risk estimate, blizzard happen with increased risk of blizzard decreased, while the number of southern risk is higher than the north.(4) Comprehensive risk assessment results. Select heilongjiang general drought, flood, general growth, general wind of 10.8 m/s winds, blizzard for 20 days of risk assessment results, comprehensive risk assessment in eastern and northern daxinganling area and qiqihar, daqing part municipal (county) providing for low. Comprehensive meteorological disaster risk have obvious district difference, and the risk is higher than in western and southern northern and eastern.(5) Information diffusion theory is simple, the analysis results meaning clear. In materialshortage of circumstances can realize disaster risk analysis, technical support in the geographyinformation under minimum regional unit can districts to use value, thereby improving science ofdisaster prevention and mitigation, and has certain directive role.