The Forecast And Analysis On Meteorological Calamity Ecological Risk And Its Assessment

Natural disasters are among the most important ecological risk we facing, among which the influence due to Meteorological calamity is to stand in the breach. It makes sense to reduce the loss caused by calamity and take precautions to the happening of the calamity by positively developing the forcast of the Meteorological calamity risk, analysis and assessment.In this paper, the new edge science of ecological risk analysis is intro-duced.Furthermore, in which some applications are taken on the Meteorological calamity risk analysis and some improvements and innovations are done based on the research methods already exist. The main works are done as following:1. Develop the Artificial Neural Network model and make a forcast to the rainfall in Qingdao area in the coming 10 years. The results shows that it is feasible to put the ANN model in use of the rainfall forcast analysis.2. Raise the continuous wavelet transform method based on the wavelet transform theory. Analyze the discrete time series rainstorm data, draw a conclusion of the regular pattern on rainstorm in Qingdao area in 1976～2005 and develop significant evidence to the calculation of the Qingdao area rainstorm risk accordingly.3. Bring up the ecological risk analysis mathematics model based on information diffusion, according to the former conclusions, extracting the data to calculate the relative risk of Qingdao rainstorm which include the risk value of the precipitation on the rainstorm day,the risk value of the number of rainstorm day and the risk value of the whole-year precipitation on the rainstorm day and give a countermeasures which make sense to the government to make a strategic decision.