Comparative Analysis Of Forecasting And Prediction Models Of Landslides

China is a landslide-prone country, and landslide has caused enormous losses of life and property every year. Landslide as a very serious and widespread global natural disaster, has become a major problem which can not be ignored. Landslide forecasting and prediction is one of the most effective methods and ways to reduce losses, which has important guiding significance for the prevention and management of landslides, therefore, forecasting and prediction of landslides has a very important engineering value and significance.In the thesis, the theories and methods of landslide hazard forecasting and prediction have been systematically reviewed on the basis of extensive reading. Firstly, on the basis of the formation mechanism and the nature development of evolutionary processes, the influencing factors and the types of landslide have been summarized and classified, systematically. Secondly, on the basis of the research of landslide forecasting and prediction, the program of landslide forecasting and prediction has been obtained. Based on the current development of the landslide forecasting and prediction, the modeling theory of models of landslide forecasting and prediction has been described after a series of systematic research and analysis, moreover, the applications and advantages/disadvantages of each model have been summed up.7The models have been categorized and obtained the model classification tables. Finally, using the material of the typical HuangCi Landslide Example (in YongJing County, GanSu Province, China), on the basis of the deterministic grey GM (1,1) model and non-deterministic synergy model, the comparative analysis results have been given by the numerical example.