Design And Implementation Of DCGE Under Decision Support System Architecture Based On Model Driver

Double-Region CGE(DCGE)is a kind of special Multi-regional CGE, Which has a complex characteristic of Multi-regional CGE and at the same time can be considered bringing the other region into a single region CGE. DCGE system's development, accomplishing the transition from single region CGE system to Multi-regional CGE system, find a new perspective to study the policy simulation on single region.This paper, considering both the model driver software engineering (MDSE) and decision support system (DSS), performs requirement analysis and programming based on modeling. In the design of model drive, the four metas structure of OMG is adopted. It is designed from the highest CGE model abstraction layer meta-meta-model, and then gradually materialized. When designing the second layer of DCGE Meta model, the requirement analysis is presented, according to DCGE Meta model.Through the requirement analysis together with the DSS, the four database structure is presented as a four bases structure, including model base, equation base, method base and database. On the third layer, the DCGE model, combined with single region CGE model and Multi-regional CGE model, is designed innovatively. On the fourth layer, the policy simulation analysis is carried on, dividing the whole country into Shanghai region and RES (Rest Except Shanghai).This paper uses c#programming language and Visual Studio development platform to develop DCGE-MD-DSS. A CGE system is often built based on a huge data set basis. This paper designs the databases and interactive interfaces according to the DCGE meta-model and DSS structure. In the design of equation base and realization of equation-unit DSS, the equations are flexibly added in the form of plugin, based on the C#reflecting technique. System takes into method base both double-regional IO generation method to provide DCGE modeling data, and Multi-regional CGE equation code generation method to expand the range of system user groups.This paper takes Shanghai as an example to apply DCGE-MD-DSS. It summarizes the characteristics of Multi-regional IO data structure by using the mathematical formula of double-regions, raises three data adjustments that should be finished in the early team of the double-regions IO generation, and finally makes double-regional IO big table. In addition, the Shanghai social accounting matrix (SAM) and RES social accounting matrix (SAM) are built according to the data of Country and Shanghai.In this paper, the economic effect, caused by the change of national oil prices policy and carbon tax policy, is simulated by the established DCGE-MD-DSS model. The results show that higher oil prices and a carbon tax levy can decrease the consumption of energy department and promote the economy of Shanghai. However, they have a negative impact on the life level of Shanghai residents, especially the tax carbon levy, and rural residents are sensitive to both of the policies. What's more, to some extent, carbon tax levy may reduce the income of the Shanghai government.