Study On Low-carbon Economy Targets Of China’s Pulp And Paper Industry And Counter Measures

With the continuous progress of human society, climatic issueshave aroused great concern gradually. On Dec7th,2009, to discuss theprogram dealing with the world’s climate warming after2013,Copenhagen Conference was held in Denmark. Ten days before theconference, the government of China announced the target for action tocontrol greenhouse gas emissions: China’s carbon dioxide emissions pergross domestic product (GDP) in2020will drop by40%～45%compared with the amount in2005. Under this background, China’spulp and paper industry, undoubtedly, plays a pivotal role in nationalefforts to realize energy-saving and emission-reduction.In order to ensure the implementation of the work concerningenergy-saving and emission-reduction for China’s pulp and paperindustry, based on technical and economic data of China’s pulp andpaper industry in2001～2010, the industry’s GDP in2001～2010werefigured out, and the values were100,820.12million Yuan,119,174.35million Yuan,145,422.60million Yuan,172,514.01million Yuan,220,576.83million Yuan,265,782.05million Yuan,328,163.65millionYuan,353,628.85million Yuan,377,735.05million Yuan,396,612.61million Yuan， respectively.Grey forecasting models were established to forecast the economydeveloping status of the industry in2011～2020. The forecasting resultswere:981,390.35million Yuan for GDP,218.4895million ton for theoutput of paper and paperboard，160.0346million ton for the output ofpulp.Further, focusing on the overall target of China’s energy-savingand emission-reduction, the goal of energy consumption per ton of pulp and paper in2020was figured out:0.90～0.98ton of standard coal. Boththe residual test and the posteriori differential test showed goodmodel-accuracy, which meant that the results were persuasive and couldprovide a theoretical basis for proposing the target of energy-saving andemission-reduction and counter measures for pulp and paper industry in2020.Focusing on the target above, challenges and correspondingmeasures for energy-saving and emission-reduction of China’s pulp andpaper industry were analyzed. Challenges faced by forest-paperintegration included: difficulty in looking for woodland, heavy tax,difficulty in financing, immature management and technical system,lack of effective operation mechanism, uneven level of development,low level of comprehensive utilization of raw materials. Thecorresponding measures were: improvement of funds preferentialpolicies in forest-paper integration, improvement of harvestingmanagement policies and improvement of mechanisms. Challengesfaced by waste paper recycling included: limited resources of importedwaste paper, problems in domestic waste paper supply chain, andexistence of limit in waste paper recycling. The corresponding measureswere: strengthening the stability of traditional import of waste paperand widening the import channels, development of strict standards ofwaste paper separation, development of national and local managementregulations and study and application of advanced experience in wastepaper recycling. Challenges faced by adjustment of energy structuremainly included high cost, the corresponding measures were:establishment of indigenous energy supply system and recycling policyof waste separation. Challenges faced by elimination of backwardproduction capacity included: unemployment and waste of resources.The corresponding measures were: strengthening publicity andeducation among enterprises, development of relevant rules andregulations to placement of laid-off workers. For insufficient supply ofcapital, the corresponding measure was: rational use of carbon tradingopportunities. For the rough way in consumption, the corresponding measures included: build of the concept of green consumption, build ofthe mechanism of consumer feedback and technical support fromprofessional bodies. For institutional barriers existed, the correspondingmeasures included: development of relevant policies, strengthening themacro-management of the state, strengthening micro-management of theindustry, community participation in management and improvement ofthe energy management organization.From the result of the study, the target in energy-saving andemission-reduction for China’s pulp and paper industry in2020was0.90～0.98ton of standard coal per ton of pulp and paper. At present,China’s energy consumption per ton of pulp and paper is1.09ton ofstandard coal, therefore, it’s feasible to complete the goal through themeasures proposed. At the same time, the result also shows the properapplication of grey forecasting model in economy forecasting of pulpand paper industry. Through the improvement of the model, long-termand more valuable industry data can be obtained, which provides atheoretical reference to low-carbon development of pulp and paperindustry.