Grey System Theory Analysis Of Energy Consumption And Energy Saving And Emission Reduction Potential Assessment In Iron And Steel Industry

At present,the iron and steel industry has become an important pillar and basic industry of china.But with the development of many years,while achieving great achievements,the iron and steel industry has also become a low energy efficiency,high energy consumption and high emission industry in our country.Hebei Province is a major province for the development of China's iron and steel industry.The output of crude steel accounts for about a quarter of the total output of crude steel in China,and the energy consumption of Hebei's iron and steel industry accounts for about 17% of the total energy consumption in China's iron and steel industry.Therefore,it is of great significance to study and analyze the energy conservation and emission reduction in Hebei Province.Based on this,this paper first establishes the gray system theory GM(1,1)mathematical prediction model and forecasted the energy consumption,coal consumption of China's iron and steel industry and energy consumption of Hebei's iron and steel industry.Then,the energy efficiency value,power energy saving potential,fuel energy saving potential and carbon dioxide emission reduction potential of Hebei's iron and steel industry are calculated by input-oriented super-efficiency DEA model.Finally,the Tobit regression model is used to analyze the factors which affect the energy conservation and emission reduction of Hebei Iron and steel industry.Through the comparative analysis of data results,this paper mainly draws the following conclusions:(1)From the perspective of energy consumption forecast data,the energy consumption of China and Hebei iron and steel industry will increase 1.16 and 1.2 times in 2019-2023,with an annual growth rate of 3.78% and 5.23% respectively.By 2023,the energy consumption of China's iron and steel industry will account for 15.41% of the national energy consumption,and the energy consumption of Hebei's iron and steel industry will account for 17.4% of the energy consumption of China's iron and steel industry.The development of iron and steel industry in Hebei Province will lag behind the overall development level of China's iron and steel industry.Coal is the most indispensable fuel in China's iron and steel industry,and the demand for coal is still increasing.Coal consumption will increase at an average annual rate of 5.23% in 2019-2023.(2)The energy efficiency of iron and steel industry in Hebei Province can be divided into three levels.The first level is the front of production,and the energy efficiency value is greater than 1.Only Shijiazhuang,Langfang and Xinji are in the front of production with good energy utilization.The second level is near the front of production including Qinhuangdao,Cangzhou and Zhangjiakou with a small gap with the front of production,and the energy efficiency value is close to 1.The third level is far from the front of production,and the energy efficiency value is less than 1.Tangshan and Handan are representative,because the scale of iron and steel production is the largest,but the energy efficiency is relatively low,while the energy efficiency in other areas is even lower,and there is a large gap with the front of production.(3)In terms of energy conservation and emission reduction,Baoding city has the largest potential for energy conservation in electric power,Zhangjiakou City has the largest potential for energy conservation in fuel energy,and Baoding city has the largest potential for carbon dioxide emission reduction.In terms of power energy conservation,Chengde,Qinhuangdao and Baoding are the regions with both energy conservation space and potential.In terms of fuel energy conservation,Tangshan,Handan,Zhangjiakou and Cangzhou are the regions with both energy conservation space and potential.In terms of carbon dioxide emission reduction,Tangshan,Handan,Chengde and Xingtai have both emission reduction space and potential.The situation of energy conservation and emission reduction in these areas has a great impact on the iron and steel industry in Hebei Province,so it should be the focus of investigation.(4)The product structure has the greatest impact on the potential of energy conservation and emission reduction,followed by the scale of enterprises,while the investment of energy conservation funds has little impact on the potential of energy conservation and emission reduction.While the space for technological progress has little impact on the energy conservation of electric power and carbon dioxide emission reduction,and only has a significant impact on the energy conservation potential of fuel energy.