Research Of The Calculation Method And Influence Factors About Service Industry’s CO₂ Emissions

Keeping GDP growth, our country has paid a huge environmental cost.Emissions of greenhouse gases cause fog frequently. The rapid rise of the services industry in recent years is also a main reason of GDP to maintain high growth.At present the domestic study on energy conservation and emission reduction is still mainly limited in the areas of industry and agriculture, but in fact with the outputs expansion of China’s service industries the study on energy consumption and CO2 emissions will has much more practical significance.The full text is divided into six chapters. The first chapter narrates the research background and significance of this article, summarizes the research results at home and abroad and leads to the research idea and innovation of this article. The second chapter analysises the energy and carbon emissions in our country and the situation at home and abroad, then estimates the emissions of CO2 generated by China’s service industries in the periods of 1996-2012 based on the methods of IPCC greenhouse gas emission listing guidelines, calculates service industry energy consumption’s share of total energy consumption and CO2 emissions’ share of total carbon emissions and analysises their change tendency. Come to the conclusion that the energy conservation and emissions reduction in service industry should not be ignored. The third chapter extends the STIRPAT model in the first place, then province is divided into high, medium and low three groups according to the size of the regional CO2 emissions intensity. And then use provincial panel data from 1996 to 2012 to study the influence factors of CO2 emissions in different region. The fourth chapter usese the LMDI method to study the factors affecting CO2 emissions intensity of country and three sets, concluding the primary and secondary factors. The results show that CO2 emissions of China’s service industries have an increasing tendency, but the CO2 emissions intensity is on a decline and differences in different areas. Population effect and affluence are major factors causing the increasing of CO2 emissions. The increasing of energy efficiency, optimization of energy structure and industrial structure are major factors causing the reduction of CO2 emissions. However, Energy intensity is the dominant factor affecting CO2 emissions intensity, the influence of the energy consumption structure and industrial structure is relatively weak and have a different influence on various areas.The fifth chapter predicts whether the Chinese service industry energy conservation and emissions reduction targets can be achieved according to the analysis of the controllable factors ’changing rate above. A conservative estimate, energy conservation and emissions reduction targets of service industry by 2020 is not easy to implement.For this purpose, the sixth chapter puts forward the prospect of China’s service industry,path and some policy recommendations on conserve energy and reduce emissions, structural adjustment for China’s service industries.