Mechanisms And Simulation Of Landuse And Land Cover Based On CA-Markov Model

The characteristics and its change in Landuse and land cover are affected by natural conditions,and it's also an vital condition and comprehensive symbol of economy and social development.Abundant study has been explored on LUCC in recent yeas,in which most of researchers focus on mechanism of change and forecast in tendency.CA-Markov model is characterised with an integration of spatial and quantity analysis,since it is developed on the basis of both CA and Markov model.Taking Ba'nan District,Chongqing Municipality as an example,the thesis is aimed to study on LUCC mechanism and simulation with the model of CA-Markov in the platform IDRISI 17.0,which is anticipated to explorer the strategies for landuse optimization.On the basis of field investigation and data collection,a database was built with software ArcGIS10.2.Then trends in landuse and land cover change were analyzed from1990-2010.After that,this thesis explore the landuse change mechanism,and make a prediction on landuse status in 2020 with software IDRISI 17.0.Finally,some countermeasure and strategies were proposed to realize the land optimization.The main results and conclusions are as followed:(1)Landuse and land cover database.A series of comprehensive database,consisting of various natural-social-economic factors,was constructed,during which pretreatment,vectorization,warehousing and other steps were adopted.(2)Characteristic of landuse and land cover change.Some indices concerned with LUCC,such as change dynamic degree,entropy,transfer matrix,etc,were calculated integrated ArcGIS10.2 with IDRISI17.0.And both the Landuse landscape patch type level index and landscape level index were also be assessed according to the landscape theory.The results show that there is a climbing trend in land for construction,woodland,grassland,water body;on the contrary,arable land and unused land showing a decreasing trend.And landuse is a also present an increasing trend of fragmentation.(3)Landuse change mechanism.The relationship between LUCC and topography,road transport,urban systems and other factors was probed by the buffer analysis,the overlay analysis and other spatial analysis model in ArcGIS10.2.The results shows that:the slope with degree 0-15 ° is most suitable for arable land and construction land and woodland and grassland is distributed in region with a slope degree more than 15°;and the traffic and administrative center factors are attractive to the construction land andwater body,and repulsive to Cultivated land.(4)Landuse forecast with CA-Markov model.land use transfer matrix was gotten in two periond of 1990-2000 and 2000—2010 respectively,and transition probability imge of construction land,farmland,forest land,water using WLC model in MCE modules,through which a collection of images was produced by collection editor.With the data in 1990 and 2000,The landuse of 2010 was simulated with CA-Markov model.Then the simulation result was verified by the actual data of 2010 with Kappa Test.Kappa value is 0.8214,which indicted that the mechanisms and parameters are reasonable.Finally,we make a prediction on the landuse of 2020 based on actual data for 2010 and the previous mechanisms and parameters.The results shows that the area of construction land will have the largest increase,followed by forest land and water body.It is happened to the largest reduction in the area of arable land,grassland,unused land.At the same time,the landscape fragmentation will be increased continually.Compared the forecast and the land use planning in Ba'nan District(2006-2020),the amount and space in the landuse planning will not beyond the scope of forecast.But the cultivated land shows a potential tendency to decrease.