Research On Environmental Effect Of Industrial Structure Evolution Under The New Normal

Under the new normal, China’s economy has shifted gear from the previous high speed to a medium-to-high speed growth, the problem of forced industrial structure imbalance and environmental pollution is prominent, the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure is urgent. Taking industrial structure and ecological environment in 1990-2014 as the research object, according to the change of GDP growth rate, the period of 1990-2011 was defined as rapid economic growth period, and the period of 2012-2014 was defined as new normal period, then comparatively analysis the evolution of industrial structure and its influence on environment between the new normal period and the rapid economic growth period, which can help to promote and realize the coordinated development of industrial structure and ecological environment.Through summarizing the research results of relevant domestic and foreign literature, industrial structure evolution was classified into industrial structure rationalization and industrial structure upgrading from the new normal perspective, then time evolution coefficient and spatial evolution coefficient of industrial structure was calculated. Next, the ordered sample cluster method was employed to analyze the time evolution characteristics of industrial structure, and the Kernel density estimation was conducted to analyze the spatial evolution features of industrial structure in 31 provinces and autonomous regions under the new normal. On this basis, used variable coefficient method to obtain ecological environment aggregative indicators through weighting after empowerment of "three wastes indicators", analyzed the environmental effect of industrial structure time evolution under the new normal through introducing time-varying parameter state space model based on time dimension, and analyzed the environmental effect of industrial structure spatial evolution of 31 provinces and autonomous regions under the new normal by building spatial error model (SEM) based on spatial dimension.Empirical results showed that:(1) In the time dimension, industrial structure of China has been turned into "tertiary-secondary-primary" mode in new normal period from "secondary-tertiary-primary" mode in rapid economic growth period, and industrial structure under the new normal was more reasonable and advanced than rapid economic growth period. In addition, the speed control and shift of economic development brought good news to the quality and governance of environment, the rationalization of industrial structure had the same negative effect on ecological environment under the new normal, and the upgrading of industrial structure had smaller positive effect on ecological environment compared with the rapid economic growth period. (2) In the spatial dimension, under the new normal, the gap of industrial structure rationalization and upgrading between provinces for 31 provinces and autonomous regions as well as eastern, central and western regions narrowed compared with the rapid economic growth period, but the gap between provinces for central and western regions were larger than the eastern regions. Additionally, under the new normal, the positive facilitations of a province and its surrounding provinces for ecological environment were stronger than rapid economic growth period; the industrial structure rationalization of this province and adjacent provinces had negative effects on the ecological environment of this province; the industrial structure upgrading of this province and adjacent provinces had positive effects on the ecological environment of this province; the industrial structure evolution of western regions had greater fixed effects on the ecological environment than eastern and central regions.