Study On Carbon Emissions Peak Of Central Plains Economic Region

The sea level rise,agricultural production,loss of species and a series of serious consequences all caused by global warming.The issue of global warming has been drawing wide attention by the international society in recent years.And too much carbon emissions from the burning of fossil fuel are the main cause of leading to global warming in recent years.Therefore,low carbon development has become a consensus of all countries gradually.More and more countries begin to participate in the activities of carbon-reduction and try to find a suitable way to develop low-carbon economy.In such circumstances,China is also undertaking the responsibility to reduce carbon emissions actively.In June of 2015,China submitted the strengthening action on climate change-China national independent contribution to the UN framework convention on climate change secretariat and is trying to achieve the grand goal that the carbon emissions will reach the peak around the year of 2030 in the file.If our country can realize the goal of peak carbon emissions in 2030,the provinces and cities of China need to design paths of realizing carbon targets according to their own situation and they should reach the carbon emissions peak in 2030 or even earlier to contribute to carbon-reduction work throughout the country.The Central Plains Economic Region(CPER)is an emerging economic region which covers Henan province;Xingtai and Handan of hebei province;Changzhi city,Jincheng,Yuncheng of Shanxi Province;Huaibei,Suzhou,Fuyang,Bozhou,Bengbu,Fengtai and huainan of Anhui province;Heze,Liaocheng and Dongping county of Shandong province.In November 2012,CPER has risen to the national strategy and it will get great developing opportunities.As a very large economic regions with a huge population and economies scale,the amount of its carbon emissions peak and the peak time have a huge impact on the national carbon emissions peak.Therefore,studying on CPER carbon emissions peak and finding a defined carbon-reduction path are particularly important.In terms of theoretical basis,this paper tries to clarify the economic logic of carbon emissions peak from the aspects of literal definition.The article is different with other studies which use low-carbon economy and sustainable development as the theoretical basis of carbon emissions peak.On the main content,based on the 2000-2014 CPER historical data,we use STIRPAT model to forecast carbonemissions of CPER in 2015-2050 and make the scenario analysis.We improved the model,using Energy consumption structure,urbanization rate and industrial structure as explained variable to make it suitable for CPER.This paper set up three scenarios: the benchmark scenario,low-carbon scenarios and the strong low carbon scenario.Each scenario sets up different values for five factors: population,per capita GDP and the proportion of coal consumption,the proportion of secondary industry and the urbanization rate.The different values represent different development trend of CPER in the future.Results show that in the benchmark scenario,low-carbon scenarios and the strong low carbon scenario,CPER will reach carbon emissions peak in 2040,2030 and 2020 respectively,the peak value is 944.6396 million tons,785.1442 million tons and 785.1442 million tons respectively.Combined with the CPER economic and social status,low-carbon scenario is a relatively reasonable scenario.Under this kind of scenario,CPER can reach carbon emissions peak around 2030 just right.And the study found that the proportion of coal consumption,the proportion of secondary industry and population have great influence on carbon emission of CPER.So when we set carbon-reduction path of CPER,we should mainly consider the energy structure and industrial structure,promoting low-carbon consciousness of people.All in all,in this paper,the carbon accounting,model building,scenario analysis and forecast,the analysis of carbon-reduction path form a complete system.The methods of previous studies are fused in this paper.We also find the carbon emissions of CPER occupy an important position in the control target of China’s carbon emissions.And finally,we give the path of achieving the goal of CPER’s carbon emissions,which has a certain degree of innovation and the practical significance.