Research On The Impact Of Financial Development On Carbon Emissions And Carbon Peak Scenario Prediction In The Three Northeastern Provinces Of China

In August 2021,the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)released the Working Group I Report of the Sixth Climate Assessment(AR6)in Geneva,which concluded that it is self-evident that human activities are contributing to climate warming.Carbon dioxide is the greenhouse gas most influenced by human activities,and it is necessary to control and minimize its emission in order to deal with the problem of global warming.As the largest carbon emitter in the world,China has always been actively exploring ways and means to address the issue of climate change.In 2020,Xi Jinping officially announced at the United Nations General Assembly that China will aim to achieve carbon peaking by 2030 and further achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 on this basis.Since then,achieving the carbon peak has been frequently put in the limelight as a current priority,and undoubtedly has become a hot topic that has attracted much attention from society.The presence of labor-and energy-intensive industries has created a high energy consumption and pollution pattern,which makes the three northeastern provinces the hardest hit by CO2 emissions.Financial services play an important role in the implementation of low-carbon economy and have a significant impact on CO2 emissions.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to study the effect of financial development on regional carbon emission reduction and the further achievement of regional carbon peaking,and taking the three northeastern provinces as the research object can also provide effective suggestions for the development of finance in the region and make reasonable program decisions for its green transformation,so as to contribute to the realization of China’s dual carbon goals in the northeast.To this end,this study takes the data from 2000-2020 in the three northeastern provinces as the sample,and uses two independent indicators,financial relevance rate and financial efficiency,to jointly measure the level of regional financial development,while screening and citing other control variables through literature analysis method and gray correlation analysis,and on this basis,constructs an extended STIRPAT model to explore the impact of financial development on carbon emissions in the three northeastern provinces,and further based on the perspective of financial development,we predict the peak time and peak level of carbon emissions in the three northeastern provinces under different scenarios,and finally explore quantitatively the specific impact of financial development on the peak carbon emissions.After empirical evidence,the following conclusions are reached: first,the financial correlation rate,financial efficiency and carbon emissions in the three northeastern provinces are positively and negatively correlated,and the increase of financial correlation rate will promote the growth of carbon emissions,while the increase of financial efficiency will inhibit the growth of carbon emissions.Secondly,the strong energy efficiency scenario is the optimal scenario to achieve the carbon peak in the three northeastern provinces,with the peak level of 2,274.35 million tons and the peak time of 2030.Finally,the improvement in the growth rate of financial development will lead to a decrease in the peak level of carbon emissions in the three northeastern provinces,but will not lead to a change in the peak time.