Effects Of Air Pollution On Respiratory Diseases Based On Bayesian CAR Model

In recent years,air pollution problems have aroused widespread concern in the whole society,caused by air pollution,especially respiratory diseases,more and more seriously affect people’s work and health.Based on this,this paper from the perspective of air pollution and respiratory disease analysis of the relationship between the two,so as to provide scientific support for government work.The Bayesian CAR model was used to monitor the respiratory disease index and the air pollution index of the city in 2011 from the 51 cities in China.The effects of air pollutants on respiratory diseases were measured.The results showed that: 1,the air pollution index PM2.5,O3 had a great effect on respiratory disease,and the estimated coefficients were 0.9559 and 0.9042 respectively.The influence coefficients of NO2,SO2,CO and PM10 were 0.4454 and 0.4222,0.3313,0.0619,2.Considering the spatial correlation between cities,the influence coefficient and confidence interval of the pollution index on respiratory diseases are more reasonable.The Bayesian CAR model is better than the negative binomial model which ignores the spatial correlation And Poisson regression model.Based on the results of Bayesian model,we study the spatial Dubin model,and the results show that respiratory disease is not only affected by air pollution,but also influenced by other indicators such as per capital GDP and medical resources.In all the impacts,the air pollution index PM2.5 had the greatest impact,and the direct effect,indirect effect and total effect of respiratory disease were 0.077,1.314 and 1.391 respectively.Based on the epidemiological study,the residents’ health effects caused by PM2.5 and PM10 in Guangzhou in January 2015 were estimated by using the exposure-response relationship.Based on this,the unit economic value of each health end Health and economic loss.The results show that the current pollution of atmospheric particulate matter has caused great damage to the health of residents in Guangzhou: the total economic loss caused by PM2.5 is 70.61 billion yuan [50.84,81.59],accounting for 4.68% [3.37%,5.41%],and the current pollution of atmospheric particulate matter has caused great damage to the health of residents in Guangzhou: the total economic loss caused by PM10 is 54.7 billion yuan [31.57,57.81],the total loss of health economy accounted for 3.63% [3.42%,3.83%] of the total GDP in the region.The results provide a scientific basis for the government to control air pollution and are of great significance to control air pollution and protect the health of the people.