The Choice Of Passive Carbon Tariffs And Active Energy Carbon Taxes Under The Sino-US High-carbon Industrial Products Trade

Since the 21 st century,climate change and environmental issues have attracted people’s attention,the Copenhagen climate conference in 2009 pushed this century puzzle to the forefront,"global warming","haze" and other words are active in public views,it also push the environmental problems into the focus of public attention.In response to limit greenhouse gas emissions in the developed countries,in December 1997 on third meeting of the “United Nations framework convention on climate change” in Kyoto Japan,the parties through the “Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change”.Europe,United States and other developed countries think that unilateral reduction will lead to carbon leakage phenomenon.Against the United States disaffiliated from the Kyoto protocol,France put forward the concept of "carbon tariffs" in 2007.Subject to international public reduction pressure,in June 2009 the U.S.House of Representatives passed the “American clean energy and security act”,U.S.impose carbon tariffs for the import of aluminium,steel,cement,chemical and other carbon-intensive products since 2020.Perspective from the impose carbon tariffs countries,usually for share the total emissions reduction obligations,and in fact is a concept of "border adjustment tax",as a means of avoid unilateral produce carbon leakage if these countries impose carbon tax in domestic.And from the perspective of countries was imposed,it often thought of as a kind of new green trade barriers,as a new form of trade protectionism.At present,developing countries are in the process of industrialization,the domestic production mode has the characteristics of high energy consumption and high emissions,if carbon tariffs is imposed on developing countries,it will lead to a serious effect.But what is undeniable that from a long-term perspective,there have certain meanings for global environmental protection and export structure adjustment if developing countries impose carbon taxs.This article is based on the “American clean energy and security act”,the United States intends to impose carbon tariffs on Chinese high carbon products in 2020.With the help of GTAP（global computable general equilibrium）models developed by purdue university,based on GTAPAgg 9.0 the latest version of the database,analysis the impact of China with the United States impose carbon tariffs on Chinese high carbon industrial products.In order to avoid the United States to impose carbon tariffs,China can choose initiative to impose carbon tax on energy in domestic,keep the same intensity of carbon tax with the United States.In order to analysis the policies impact of on China,we using the GTAP model set up three kinds of situation: “the United States impose carbon tax on energy（S₁）”,“the United States impose carbon tax on energy and impose import carbon tariffs on Chinese high carbon industrial（S₂）”,“the United States and China both impose carbon tax on energy（S₃）".Simulation results show that from the perspective of the overall,the situation of S₁ 、S₂ produce a slight positive stimulus to China’s GDP and social welfare,and the S₃ have a serious negative stimulus to China’s GDP and social welfare.From the perspective of the individual industry,if United States impose import carbon tariffs on Chinese high carbon industrial,the high carbon industrial products export to the United States have fallen sharply.And if China impose a domestic carbon tax on energy,it will make domestic high carbon industry,energy industry output and export decline significantly,but low carbon industry,service industry,agriculture in varying degree rise,among them,the low carbon industry growth is the largest.The strategies in response to this problem,based on the overall view in decisions,carbon tax on energy in domestic while it can avoid imposed carbon tariffs by USA,but it will exert great influence on the domestic economic operation on the whole,so China should select the passive coping strategy.But with the view of decision based on the industry,the China should initiative to impose tax on carbon energy industry,energy carbon tax can adjust Chinese structure of the domestic industry and the export trade.It is a positive attitude for climate change,contribute to solve the climate change and the environment problem.How to choose,the key lies in the trade-off,but in this paper,based on the view of many other scholars,China should actively participate in international carbon reduction agreement negotiations,keep up with the trend of the low carbon economic development,speed up the development of low carbon economy.