A Study On The Total Factor Productivity Of China's Agriculture

Since the reform and opening up,the agricultural production of our country has achieved remarkable results driven by the factor input,but with the increasingly aggravation of the restriction of the agricultural production resources and the consumption demand of the residents in our country.It is insufficient to rely solely on factor input to drive the sustained growth of agriculture.Therefore,China's agricultural production should take a new way of improving quality and increasing efficiency and transforming the development of growth power.In particular,we should promote agricultural modernization by raising total Factor productivity of agriculture and support the sustainable and balanced development of the whole national economy.Based on the analysis and research of relevant theories,this paper studies the agricultural TFP since the reform and opening up in China by the method of combining qualitative and quantitative analysis.There are four main contents:Firstly,according to the law of diminishing marginal return and the theory of scale return,the paper analyzes the influence of factor input change on output growth,and then analyzes the classical economic growth theory represented by Smith and Ricardo.The neoclassical growth theory represented by Solo and the endogenous growth theory represented by Romer's knowledge spillover model.Finally,on the basis of the above theoretical analysis,the total factor productivity is defined.Combing out the development process of total factor productivity theory.Secondly,according to the mixed cross-section data of 31 provinces,municipalities and districts in China from 1978 to 2015,the production front was constructed.The Malmquist index model based on Date Envelopment analysis is used to measure and analyze the changing trend of agricultural TFP and its composition in China.The results show that the agricultural TFP and technological progress of China from 1978 to 2015 are overall present.Showing an upward trend,The increase of technological progress is larger than that of agricultural TFP,and the relative technical efficiency is decreasing.This indicates that the improvement of agricultural TFP in China is largely driven by technological progress,and the deterioration of relative technical efficiency(except in a few years)has partly reduced the promotional role brought about by technological progress.Shanghai's agricultural TFP is driven by technological progress and efficiency,and other provinces are in line with the basic situation of the country.Third,taking the calculation result of DEA model as the explanatory variable,using the error correction model to analyze the impact direction of nine variables on agricultural TFP and its composition,such as the actual utilization of foreign investment,the stock of human capital,and the financial support for agriculture.On the basis of this,the influence path of agricultural TFP is further analyzed according to the specific changes of various factors.The results show that except natural disasters have reverse effects on agricultural TFP,the other eight variables have positive effects on agricultural TFP.The positive effects of agricultural human capital stock,input-output price mechanism and per capital cultivated land area on agricultural TFP are most significant.The following five variables: the stock of agricultural human capital,the actual utilization of foreign direct investment in agriculture,the level of rural industrialization,the financial support for agriculture and natural disasters are all through the promotion of technological progress.The path of reducing relative technical efficiency has an impact on agricultural TFP,industrial structure adjustment,agricultural product input-output price mechanism change,infrastructure construction,The four variables of per capital cultivated land area all have positive effects on agricultural TFP by promoting the technological progress and improving the relative technical efficiency.Fourth,based on the analysis of the influencing ways of various factors,this paper puts forward some suggestions to promote the sustainable growth of agriculture in China from the aspects of equal emphasis on the quality of elements and relative technical efficiency and continuous strengthening of institutional innovation.