| Sustainable development has been the theme today,and it has been also a great challenge for human.The economic development of China is the most active in the global,but which accompanied by the unsustainable factors that affect economic growth.Therefore,how to make use of natural resources reasonable and effectively,and prevent the further deterioration of the ecological environment is one of the most concerned issues in China.So that we can realize the coordinated and sustainable development of human-natural complex ecosystem.It is also a hot research topic in various academic fields.The most sustainable evaluation operational scale was selected in this paper,and the classical ecological fragile region was a case study,First,the Sustainable Index System was constructed based on the theory of the landscape sustainable development and the theory of the entropy change.The time series of landscape sustainable evaluation and system coordination degree were analyzed.Second,the Kriging interpolation method and correlation analysis method were used to evaluate the landscape sustainable all of the space.And the method of system cluster was used to analyze the different sustainable degree of Mizhi County.Third,the ARIMA model was used to predict the sustainable development degree of the 2015-2020 years in Mizhi County,and the landscape sustainable of 2020 was forecasted,and the difference among “planning development of scene simulation” and “ecological protection scenario” and “economic and social development scenarios” of the study area were explored.Finally,based on scenario simulation analysis,suggestions were put forward for the development of the research area.Several conclusions were drawn as the following:(1)The function and evolution mechanism of landscape and the evaluation of landscape sustainability were reflected effectively by landscape sustainability evaluation index system based on the landscape sustainability theory and entropy change perspective theory.(2)During 2009-2014 years,Mizhi County landscape entropy,entropy production decreased and the total entropy continue towarded sustainable development.It indicated that landscape sustainability scores increased,but the score of the service demand of landscape was greater than the landscape service ability score,landscape vulnerability scores was greater than the landscape coping ability score.Degree of the coordination of the landscape system was a downward trend in the study period,which indicates that the sustainable development of landscape was not stable,and its sustainable level needed to be improved.The prediction of the sustainable development trend of landscape in next 6 years showed a stable growth towards,which indicated a good direction of development.Therefore,the internal stability should be strengthed and the internal complexity of Mizhi County should be reduced to make the stable landscape towards sustainable development.(3)During 2009-2014 years,the overall landscape sustainable level of Mizhi County showed a general uptrend.As the whole,the change of landscape sustainability in the central region of Mizhi County was smaller than the rest of the region.The degree of landscape sustainability in the Southeast was transformed from low into medium.The sustainable level of the northwest areas enhanced than before;The grads of town of Shilipu and Lizhan was less than before.(4)The sustainable development of three kinds of landscape development scenarios was forecasted in 2020 year.The sustainable development level of the ecological protection scenario was the highest and the sustainable development level of the social and economic development was higher than the development of simulation under planning.However,the level of sustainable development of landscape in 2020 was smaller than 2014.(5)The sustainable development proposals and measures in Mizhi County: We should focus on the ecological protection and increase the social and economic development efforts to promote the sustainable development of Mizhi County;Improving the ability of landscape service: On the premise of ensuring the improvement of the ecological environment,we should increase the farmland areas per person and grain output per unit area;Reasonable control of the demand of landscape service: we should reduce the production energy consumption and control the use of pesticides and agricultural diesel on the basis of ensuring agricultural output value;Improving the landscape fragility of the research area: we should control the use of plastic film for agricultural use and Vigorously develop the two or three industry to increase employment opportunities;Improving the landscape coping ability of the research area: we should improve the effective afforestation area and irrigated area. |
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