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Modeling Mitigation Strategies Of Chagas Transmission

Posted on:2020-04-26Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:X Y YanFull Text:PDF
GTID:2370330575970807Subject:Applied Mathematics
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Chagas disease is a parasitic infection transmitted through the bite of the Triatoma infestans,it causes infection worldwide and can be fatal to humans.Most of cases occurring in the endemic areas of Latin American countries.We developed a mathematical model to study the transmission dynamics of Chagas among humans,Triatoma infestans,and mammals,assuming that Chagas vaccine is publicly available.The aim of this work is to find an effective way to deliver limited vaccines to reduce the spread of chagas disease.The basic reproduction number and the extinction threshold are derived to predict whether the epidemic will spread in deterministic and stochastic settings.Meanwhile,we derived the relationship between the basic reproduction number and the effective reproduction number.Routhhurwitz's theorem was used to analyze the stability of the disease-free equilibrium.If,the disease-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable,if,the disease-free equilibrium is unstable.We used the Lyapunov functions to prove that when,the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable in the feasible region and when,the endemic equilibrium of the model are globally asymptotically stable in the feasible region.In addition,sensitivity analysis is used to quantify how the parameters respond to the basic reproduction number and cumulative number of infected humans in order to identify the important factors affecting disease transmission.The simulations analyzed how we can allocate limited doses of vaccines effectively in different scenarios.Our results provide guidance for health authorities to distribute vaccines effectively.
Keywords/Search Tags:Chagas vaccine, Basic reproduction number, Extinction threshold, Stability analysis, Sensitivity analysis
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