Research On Risk Assessment Of Highway Project In PPP Mode Based On Gray System Theory

According to the 13 th five-year Plan for the Development of Modern Integrated Transport system issued by the State Council in 2017,the mileage of expressway construction in China is expected to reach 150000 kilometers by 2020.Highway plays a more and more important role in the integrated transportation system of our country.However,the traditional investment mode can no longer meet the needs of high-speed development and construction of expressway.Government funds alone can not support the huge capital needs of the construction.PPP model can enable social capital to participate in the construction of the project just can solve the difficult problem of the government undefineds funds.The construction of expressway project through PPP model can not only relieve the pressure of government funds,but also let many parties participate in the risk sharing and realize the win-win situation of many parties.However,in many practical cases at present,it is found that many expressway PPP projects have problems in risk management due to the inaccurate risk assessment in practice,which makes the project fail to meet the expectations and even fail.So making a set of effective evaluation method to evaluate the project accurately has become the key point of highway project under PPP mode.This paper systematically introduces the definition on the basis of reading a large number of documents,characteristics and classification of PPP model,expounds the characteristics of PPP project risk,and introduces the PPP project risk management program in detail.And summarized the PPP project risk identification and risk assessment methods.Secondly,the definition and method of grey system theory are introduced,and the evaluation model is established by using grey clustering and grey relational degree theory,and a set of PPP project risk assessment index system based on the point of view of project life cycle is constructed according to the analytic hierarchy process(AHP).In the aspect of demonstration,this paper evaluates the risk of Fengxin(Jingan)-Gaoan-Zhangshu Expressway PPP project through the evaluation model based on grey system theory.Using the check table method combined with the previous risk assessment index system to identify the risk of the project,and invite experts to collect empirical data through the way of questionnaire.Combined with the collected expertdata and evaluation model,the project risk evaluation results are obtained and the results are analyzed.Finally,this paper summarizes the risk identification mechanism and risk sharing mechanism of expressway projects under the current PPP mode,and puts forward some suggestions to improve the current identification mechanism.In the aspect of risk sharing mechanism,this paper makes a set of risk sharing scheme according to the deficiency of current sharing mechanism to perfect the current sharing mechanism.This paper also puts forward the corresponding risk prevention suggestions for the risk index system and the five kinds of risk evaluation indexes encountered in the empirical cases.