Research And System Realization Of Public Opinion Spreading Situation Prediction In Colleges And Universities

With the development of the times and continuous updating of information and communication means,in this process,the Internet,as an important medium for information transmission,has become an important way for campus group to obtain public opinion in colleges and universities.On the basis of the network,public opinion in colleges and universities is more expressive and more diversified,it also promotes the network public opinion in colleges and universities to have four characteristics: directness,randomness,suddenness and deviation.In view of the above characteristics of network public opinion in colleges and universities,university administrators need timely access to relevant and effective public opinion information,which can track the public opinion dynamics in real time,predict the development trend of public opinion,and prevent problems before they happen,especially some negative information which destroy university order and seriously endanger students,and such information should be guided and managed in a timely manner.Based on the starting point of this problem,this paper is based on the analysis of public opinion spreading situation prediction in colleges and universities at home and abroad,constructs a set of management system for public opinion in colleges and universities based on Java Web which carries on demand analysis and detailed design.Collecting and arranging the public opinion data in colleges and universities through various media channels,it realizes the real-time monitoring and data analysis visualization of various dimensions for public opinion in colleges and universities,including heat analysis for public opinion in colleges and universities,audience analysis and media analysis.At the same time,in order to meet the needs of public opinion manages in colleges and universities,the system implements some modules,such as member management,authority management,and public opinion inquiry.On the basis of comparing the various forecasting methods of public opinion in colleges and universities and comprehensively considering the overall trend for development of public opinion in colleges and universities,the Markov prediction model is introduced,based on public opinion data in colleges and universities,the evaluation system of public opinion heat in colleges and universities is constructed and,according to the heat value and heat trendvalue for public opinion in colleges and universities,they are used to divide the state space into the existing public opinion in colleges and universities,and then construct the state transition matrix of public opinion in colleges and universities which is based on these state spaces,finally,combined with the state transition matrix and Markov property,the initial state vector is used to construct equations to solve the problem and predict the heat trend of public opinion in colleges and universities.In order to verify the feasibility of public opinion prediction model in colleges and universities,this paper uses the 8486 pieces of data from Sina Weibo that has been crawled based on the keyword “ double-top ” to verify the experiment,the final experimental verification result show that,in the heat trend range of public opinion in colleges and universities predicted by the model,5 out of the 7 intervals are consistent with the actual situation,thus verifies the correctness of the public opinion prediction model in colleges and universities.The public opinion management system in colleges and universities has carried out data visualization on the public opinion monitoring,in the data visualization,the data visualization tool AntV is used to display the public opinion in colleges and universities from the aspects of public opinion,such as heat analysis,search word analysis,media analysis and audience analysis.This paper uses the existing 43681 pieces of public opinion data in colleges and universities to carrt on data analysis,and the time interval is from 2016 to 2019,after data processing and analysis,the requirements for visualizing the public opinion monitoring in colleges and universities have been basically completed.The public opinion management system in colleges and universities has been successfully put into trial operation,at the same time,the function,safety,performance and pressure of the system have been tested,and the test results are good,this system can provide the basis and convenience for the university administrators to monitor and predict public opinion in colleges and universities.