| The report of the Nineteenth National Congress pointed out that the foundation of the sustainable development of the Chinese nation is the construction of ecological civilization.The next step of land work should always adhere to the concept of innovation,coordination,green,open and shared development.As the core content of ecological civilization construction,land ecological security is an important prerequisite to ensure regional sustainable development.How to ensure regional land ecological security and realize regional sustainable development has become an important topic of social development.As an important attempt to solve the problem of sustainable development in the economy-intensive area,Xiong'an New Area is a major national event.In order to avoid the Xiong'an New Area in solving the last round of regional sustainable development problems,it is necessary to maintain the Xiong' an New Area has a good land ecological security situation.Therefore,it is necessary to explore the future land ecological security situation in Xiong'an New Area.This paper takes the future land ecological security as the research object.Based on the principle of system dynamics,the simulation model of land ecological security system in Xiong'an New Area is constructed from three system levels:economy,society and nature.Based on the data of regional development in Xiong'an New Area in 2005?2017 and relevant knowledge of social economy.By using the analysis function of SPSS software,the interrelation and equation between system and system,between system and element,between element and element are obtained.According to the concept of land ecological security and the influence of subsystem on land ecological security,six policy variables were selected as controllable variables from three aspects:economy,society and nature.According to the possible policy direction of Xiong'an New Area in the future,the controllable variables in different numerical states are combined to form 9 scenarios.Based on the simulation model,the ecological security status of the land in Xiong'an New Area is simulated in 9 different scenarios.According to the PSR frame model,the evaluation factors are selected from the economic,social and natural aspects,and the evaluation index system is constructed,and the comprehensive weight of the evaluation index system is determined by chromatography analysis and entropy weight method.Furthermore,9 scenarios were optimized by using the modified Topsis model to select the optimal development scenario of land ecological security in Xiong'an New Area.The results show that:(1)The simulation model of the land ecological security system in Xiong'an New Area works well,and there is no abnormal parameter value during operation.The dimension of the process is consistent.The model has good stability and maneuverability,and the model can simulate the future development of land ecological security in Xiong'an New Area.(2)The ecological security of land in Xiong'an New Area is influenced by economic and population-related policy factors.The impact of ecological factors on the land ecological security of Xiong'an New Area is relatively small within the scope of the planning outline of Xiong'an New Area.The security situation of land-economy subsystem and land-society subsystem showed a better development trend,while that of land-natural subsystem showed a downward trend.(3)The state of regional land ecological security is the result of multi-subsystem coordination.To explore the ecological security of land in Xiong'an New Area is to explore the optimal solution set which each subsystem of the simulation model can achieve maximum benefit.The pressure of human activities on land can be kept within the range of land ecology and actively respond to the existing and possible ecological problems,so as to continuously improve the ecological security of land in the region and the sustainable development of economy,society and nature.(4)At the GDP growth rate of 10.5%,the proportion of investment in three industries is 3.5:41.5:55,the population growth rate is 1.35%,the forest land growth rate is 18.4%,the wetland growth rate is 1.49%,and the utilization rate of unused land is 20%,the land ecological security situation of Xiong'an New Area is optimal in 2030.Therefore,economic and social development and regional land ecological security are not mutually exclusive,so long as human beings can correctly handle the relationship between economy and society,nature,can achieve common development.Land ecological security system is a relatively complex nonlinear system.The simulation process is also a process of continuous attempt and improvement.The internal and external conditions of the system are constantly changing,and the relationship between the variables of the model will also change with the internal and external conditions.Therefore,the simulation results are only a more objective possibility,in order to provide a corresponding policy reference for the formulation of Xiong'an New Area. |
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