Research On The Estimation And Influence Factors Of Carbon Emission Of Dairy Cattle Industry In China

The massive emission of greenhouse gases has led to an increase in global warming and will have an unprecedented impact on human life.Animal husbandry is the major source of greenhouse gas emissions.Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations(FAO)pointed out in its report Livestock’s Long Shadow in 2016 that: If carbon dioxide equivalence was used as the basic unit for measuring the greenhouse effect,animal husbandry was a major contributor to the greenhouse effect,accounting for 18% of total greenhouse gas emissions;this proportion was obviously higher than that of the transport industry.As an important part of the animal husbandry industry,carbon emission of the dairy cattle industry cannot be neglected.It was the premise of making the carbon emission reduction policy for the dairy cattle industry to estimate carbon emission of dairy industry scientifically and analyze its influencing factors deeply.In view of this,this paper divided the dairy cattle industry into six links,including the plant of the cow feed grain,transport and processing of the cow feed grain,gastrointestinal fermentation of cows,manure management system,energy dissipation of cow raising,and dairy product processing based on low-carbon economy theory,environmental Kuznets curve theory,and externality theory.Moreover,the paper estimated and analyzed the total carbon emission of the Chinese dairy cattle industry from 2000 to 2016 with the method of life cycle assessment.And based on this,the paper built a theoretical framework of carbon emission factors for the dairy cattle industry as an extension of Kaya identity.What’s more,the paper conducted a positive analysis of the influence of the policy,technology,environment and scale on carbon emission of the dairy cattle industry in recent ten years by adopting dynamic panel model with systematic GMM.And countermeasures and suggestions on curbing carbon emissions of the dairy cattle industry were proposed.The aim of paper was to provide a theoretical basis and decision-making reference for the government to formulate the carbon emission reduction policies of the dairy cattle industry,and provide relevant researchers with ideas and reference.The result showed: From 2000 to 2016,the change of the total carbon emission of the dairy cattle industry was characterized by swift growth,small decline and slow growth;gastrointestinal fermentation of cows,manure management system,plant of the cow feed grain,energy dissipation of cow raising were the major sources of carbon emissions of the dairy cattle industry;the carbon emission of the dairy cattle industry had an obvious inter provincial difference;the industrial scale and development level of the dairy cattle industry had a positive effect on carbon emission of the dairy cattle industry,and green emission reduction technology and environmental regulation could promote carbon emission reduction of dairy cattle industry.Therefore,to curb the continuous increase of the carbon emission of dairy cattle industry,this paper put forward countermeasures and suggestions as follows: Firstly,the government should strengthen the environmental regulation while putting industrial dredging as the center.Combining the command-type environmental regulation tools with the market-based environmental regulation tools was of advantage in solving the carbon emission problem of dairy cattle industry;secondly,the government should improve the technical system by focusing on cattle breeding technology,i.e.more attention should be paid to improving the technical level of cattle breeding rather than the plant of the cow feed grain;thirdly,the government should optimize the development layout with moderate scale as the principle,and each area should develop the dairy cattle industry appropriately according to their own resource endowments.