Research On Influencing Factors And Emission Reduction Strategies Of Carbon Emissions In Shanxi Province

Global warming has severely damaged the ecological environment,causing a series of natural disasters.Protecting the natural environment,reducing greenhouse gas emissions,and actively responding to climate change have become common global goals.China is striving to reach the peak of carbon dioxide by 2030 and to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.In order to better cope with the challenge of carbon emission reduction,the Chinese government has gradually introduced various plans and policies,and various localities and industries have studied,planned and deployed,and sought the best solution according to the specific situation.Shanxi Province is rich in natural resources,and its economic development has long relied on the development of traditional energy sources,mainly coal.Today,while maintaining stable economic development,it is necessary to adjust and optimize the industrial structure,rationally utilize resources,and reduce carbon dioxide emissions.Energy conservation and emission reduction are of great significance to the green development of Shanxi Province.First,this paper analyzes the status quo of economic development,energy consumption,and carbon emissions in Shanxi Province.From 2006 to 2020,Shanxi Province’s economic development situation is improving,the industrial structure transformation has been very effective,and the proportion of the output value of the tertiary industry has surpassed that of the secondary industry.The intensity of energy consumption has dropped significantly,and the energy structure has been optimized.The carbon emissions in Shanxi Province from 2006 to 2020 were calculated using the carbon emission coefficient method.The most significant energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions are undoubtedly the industrial sector.Secondly,using the LMDI decomposition model,the carbon emission factors of Shanxi Province are decomposed into economic output effect,industrial structure effect,energy intensity effect,energy structure effect and carbon emission coefficient effect.The results show that the economic output effect is the most important factor for the increase of carbon emissions,while the other three factor effects all play a certain inhibitory role,of which the energy intensity is the main inhibitory factor.The contribution of the current economic output effect to carbon emissions is higher than the sum of other factors.On the basis of the previous article,the Tapio decoupling model is used to construct the relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth.The results show that there are three decoupling states between carbon emissions and economic growth in Shanxi Province,namely weak decoupling,growth linkage and strong decoupling.Most of the time there is a weak decoupling,indicating that the economy is growing faster than carbon emissions.The construction industry and the service industry have achieved a strong decoupling state.Finally,the scenario prediction model is used to set the parameters of the driving factors of carbon emission according to the expected development direction in the future.It is divided into three scenarios,including benchmark scenario,emission reduction scenario and strong emission reduction scenario.Under each scenario,the carbon emission of Shanxi Province from 2021 to 2030 is predicted.Based on the research content of the full text,in order to promote the development of low-carbon economy in Shanxi Province,put forward targeted carbon emission reduction countermeasures,and provide important theoretical support for exploring the road of sustainable development.