Analysis And Application Of New Energy Evolution Model Driven By Carbon Trading

Since the Industrial Revolution,the production and consumption of fossil energy have expanded sharply. The use of fossil energy produces a large number of greenhouse gases and results in global warming. China is facing enormous environmental pressure from the size of economy and population. Under the new economic normal,the extensive development model of " draining the pond to catch the fish " cannot meet the new development requirements.China urgently needs to formulate corresponding environmental policies to improve the structure of energy production and consumption.This paper applies the theory of nonlinear dynamics into the study of energy economics.Based on the complex relationship among new energy,carbon emission,economic growth and carbon trading,a new energy evolution model driven by carbon trading is constructed.This paper conducts scenario analysis to explore the development rules of new energy,carbon trading and the driving mechanism of carbon trading to new energy with the help of nonlinear dynamics theory.At the same time,this paper also discusses the completion of the 13 th five-year energy planning goals and provides some reference for the formulation of Chinese environmental policies.First of all,literature review,theoretical foundation and development status provide theoretical guidance and practical basis for model construction and scenario analysis. The literature review includes three aspects: emission reduction efficiency and influencing factors of new energy,emission reduction efficiency and influencing factors of carbon trading,and the relationship between new energy and carbon trading.In the part of theoretical foundation,the basic concepts of energy economics and nonlinear dynamics theory are introduced.In the part of development status,the paper shows the development of China’s new energy and carbon trading through the data chart.At the same time,this paper analyzes the characteristics and future development trend of new energy and carbon trading from a qualitative perspective.Then,the fourth chapter builds a new energy evolution model based on the nonlinear dynamic system theory and discusses the driving mechanism of carbon trading to new energy.Scenario analysis based on statistical data shows that the development of new energy and carbon trading can both curb carbon emissions and reduce energy intensity.It is also found that the key factor influencing the driving mechanism of carbon trading to new energy is the degree of development of carbon trading market. When the carbon trading market is mature,it can promote the development of new energy effectively. Moreover,the faster the carbon trade develops,the more it promotes new energy. Immature carbon trading mechanism or excessive government intervention could have a negative impact on the development of new energy.Finally,the fifth chapter carries out scenario analysis in combination with China’s 13 th five-year energy plan. In general,the development of new energy and carbon trading is conducive to the realization of the 13 th five-year energy plan. In terms of the synchronization of regulatory goals,the driving effect of carbon trading on new energy not only affects the development of new energy itself,but also affects the coordination of energy structure and energy intensity change direction through the systematic transmission mechanism. The stronger the positive effect of carbon trading on new energy,the more favorable it is to achieve the goals of the 13 th five-year plan and to ensure the synchronization of the goals. In terms of the differences between two regulatory goals, there are differences in the degree of difficulty in achieving the goals of energy structure and energy intensity. It will be more difficult to reach 15% of new energy by 2020, and it will be easier to reduce energy intensity by 15% than in 2015.