Research And Implementation Of Aircraft Operational Risk Assessment Method And System Based On High Risk Tracks

Since the incident of the disappeared flight MH370,aviation safety monitoring has attracted worldwide attention.With the volume of air traffic increasing,the safety situation of aircraft operation is becoming increasingly complex.The International Civil Aviation Organization(ICAO)and the Civil Aviation Administration of China have issued safety management documents in succession in order to improve the capability of safety monitoring and the safety level of aviation operation through the implementation of the safety management system of the system(SMS).In the aviation safety risk management system,the risk assessment plays an important role in the follow-up risk control process.This dissertation identifies and extracts the risk assessment factors by researching and analyzing the high-risk tracks information in aviation operation,and then carries out a scientific and reasonable risk assessment of aircraft operation status,which provides an important decision-making reference for air traffic safety management and control.It is of great significance to strengthen the capability of safety monitoring in civil aviation of China.Firstly,focusing on the risk information contained in the high-risk flight path of air traffic operation,and then combing and extracting the risk factors of air traffic operation scientifically at the macro level by identifying and discovering the risk sources existing in air traffic control,airline operation control and navigation control.The 27 kinds of risk factors are initially established that are contained in the factor set,A multi-level and hierarchical index system for aircraft operational risk assessment is constructed which is based on the "human,aircraft and loop" of system engineering.Secondly,on the basis of the evaluation index system,the risk assessment index model of aircraft operation is constructed.In the model,the weights of evaluation indexes are determined by the combination of IAHP and information entropy.This method can not only ensure the continuity of risk assessment data,but also take into account the objectivity of evaluation elements,and realize the flexible judgement of experts.Then,a domestic flight information region is selected to carry out an evaluation example analysis,and a "dynamic" evaluation index system suitable for the region is constructed.The evaluation result is medium risk,and the reliability and validity of the assessment result are verified.Finally,the system of aircraft operation safety monitoring and risk assessment is designed and developed.Under the environment of Microsoft Visual Studio 2015 development platform,ASP.NET technology is used to realize the functions.The system functions include risk assessment index curve,alarm statistical analysis and historical operation query.Then,the system functions and performance are tested by building software and hardware test environment.The test results pass and meetting the users’ requirements and system design requirements.