| Objectives: By statistical analysis of tuberculosis surveillance data reported from 2012 to 2016 in Wuhu city,this paper describes epidemiological distribution of tuberculosis patients at different times,locations and groups,and learns the tuberculosis epidemic situation from 2012 to 2016 in Wuhu city;it analyzes the tuberculosis trend between 2012 and 2016,and predicts the epidemic situation of tuberculosis in 2017.Methods: By collecting and organizing the record data from the tuberculosis specialized departments of Wuhu from 2012 to 2016,and introducing the data to Microsoft Office Excel 2007 for statistics and graphing,this paper analyzes the distribution of tuberculosis patients at different times,locations and groups by descriptive epidemiological method.Significant differences between rate and constituent ratio are analyzed by adopting SPSS16.0 software.By the use of Microsoft Excel 2007 software,regression equation about the number of tuberculosis incidence cases of Wuhu form 2012 to 2016 on the weekly basis is estimated,with which,the tuberculosis epidemic situation of 2017 is predicted and analyzed.Demographic data is derived from the basic information system in the information system for china disease control and prevention.The comparison of rate and constituent ratio is mainly achieved by Chi-square test.Results: 10152 tuberculosis cases were reported between 2012 to 2016 in Wuhu.The average annual reported incidence rate is 56 per 100000,and the reported incidence rate is declining slowly.Tuberculosis occurs every month,with the peak in march,and a slow decline in the 4-7 month.From August to January next year,the incidence of the disease increases slowly,and the lowest incidence is in February.The proportion of county reported tuberculosis patients to the whole city’s scale changes significantly.The percentage of Wuwei County and Nanling County decreases year by year,while the percentage of the city’s urban tuberculosis patients increases year by year.Tuberculosis epidemic situation of various counties in Wuhu basically shows a downward trend,which decreases the most is Nanling County,down from 100/100000 to 56/100000,but Nanling county is still the most serious epidemic district of tuberculosis in Wuhu city.The reported tuberculosis incidence of urban area is slowly rising.By gender,the male patients are more than the female patients among the reported tuberculosis cases.The sex ratio of male and female is about 3:1,with the highest in 2012 and 2013 is 3.1:1,while the lowest in 2016 is 2.7:1.The annual ratio is relatively stable.By occupation,farmers are still the most affected people,accounting for 60.1% of the total,followed by housekeepers and unemployed personnel,accounting for 20.7% of the total.By age,Wuhu tuberculosis patients are mainly concentrated in the elderly population,the most is in the group above 60 years old,accounting for 20.8% of the total.The cumulative number of times as independent variables,the actual number of diseases per week as dependent variables,the fitting linear regression equation is Y=-0.02X+41.8,showing that the epidemic situation of tuberculosis in Wuhu is declining slowly.Every year,the periodic outbreak of tuberculosis occurs obviously,with the least incidence cases in about the 7th and 40 th week,and the most incidence cases in about the 13 th and 48 th week.According to the forecasting,the tuberculosis epidemic situation of Wuhu in 2017 is still declining slowly and has seasonal outbreak obviously.Conclusion: In recent years,the tuberculosis epidemic situation in Wuhu has been controlled effectively,and is showing a downward trend.But we are still a long way from achieving the goal of alleviating the tuberculosis.The long-term trend shows that the decline is slow and the tuberculosis has seasonal outbreak.The disease incidence varies significantly in genders,occupations and ages.The epidemic trend of tuberculosis can be well analyzed and predicted by moving average method.The method is simple and practical. |
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