| In accordance with the important spirit of the meeting on the party’s congress, eighteen, third Plenary Session of eighteen, as well as "the CPC Central Committee State Council on Deepening the Health Care Reform", to further consolidate and promote our health system reform,to establish socialism Chinese characteristics medical and health system,to achieve universal access basic health care services by 2020 target, this study Rely on the subject of the platform of 2010 CMB university cooperation projects in western China- The status quo and Policy Evaluation Research on Western China rural health human resource allocation and maintaining(Research Fund No.: Grant Number 10-029), this study was based on the status quo and development goals of allocation of health resources in western China, to promote the strengthening of west primary health care team building, to implement the national long-term talent development program(2009-2020), to improve the technological level of the western medical and health services, and to promote medical and health major goal of career development, this study selected issues of planning and allocation of human resources in the western region to expand health research.Research purposesBased on the analysis of the history and current status of health human resources in 11 provinces in the west,obtain staffing levels and changes of the overall development of the western health human resources. Using scientific methods to predic target "absolute requirement" and "relative demand" overall health human resources in the West respectively. On this basis, we propose discussions and advice for the future development and retention of human resources of the western, to promote government and health authorities to adjust the existing stock of human resources for health from the quantity, quality and distribution more reasonably, optimize the increment; But also to provide theoretical support for the development of regional medical education development strategy, training of health expertise in planning, coordinating human resources for health and other aspects of supply and demand.Research MethodsThis study using quantitative analysis method of curve estimation, manpower/ population ratio method, gray system method, multiple linear regression method, the weighted average combination method and HRDI etc., as well as literature research, data description, expert consultation method and other qualitative methods to deal with research data.ResultsAbsolute demand forecasting of Western overall health human resources: The predictive value of health manpower demand in the 11 western provinces from the year 2013 to 2020 were summed to obtain the overall absolute demand predictive target of health human resources in western.forecast results: 2013-2020, the absolute predictive value of overall health manpower demand of the west were 2,433,683, 2,680,243, 2,954,897, 3,258,811, 3,593,174, 3,959,167, 4,357,997 and 4,790,877.Data show that from 2002 to 2012, the West overall health personnel showed a growing trend, and the growth rate in recent years is increasing year by year, until 2012, the total number of overall health workers of 11 western provinces is 2,186,782, with 2001 as the base period, an increase is 72.4%. In the next few years, the entire western demand for health human resources is as increasing in recent years, the growth rate was relatively stable, until 2020 the 11 western provinces overall health manpower demand is about 479 million, compared to 2012, increased by about 119%, an average annual increase is 14.9 percent.On the basis of overall demand of health workers in the West which have been predicted, come to the 2020 western overall value of demand forecast on the health technicians, practicing(assistant) physicians and registered nurses. The results show that, by 2020, the overall 11 western province shealth technicians, practicing(assistant) physicians, registered nurses, pharmacists health(disability) and health technicians(assistant) demand are 3,744,549, 1,659,081, 1,189,096, 202,175 and 198,821;Numbers per thousand population in 2020 of all kinds of health workers were: 9.48, 4.20, 3.01, 0.51 and 0.50.Relative demand forecasting of Western overall health human resources: Order the country as a reference standard, western overall health personnel relative demand forecast results from 2013 to 2020 were as follows: 3,888,046, 4,040,467, 4,198,864, 4,363,470, 4,534,529, 4,712,294, 4,897,028 and 5,089,004. Until 2020, the overall health manpower absolute demand of 11 western provinces is about 479 million, while order the national average as reference, the relative demand is about 509 million, the disparity between the two is only 300,000.Discussion and recommendations:Discussion: Overall, since the reform and opening up, the western region development of health services and health human resources were booming developed during the past 30 years, The growth rate of Western health human resources was relatively fast, health human resource ownership of per thousand population had developed rapidly. In the next few years, the absolute demand of overall health human resources in western keeps increasing in recent years, the growth rate is relatively stable, studing on "relative demand" of regional health human resources shows that, with HRDI as a measure in the next few years, the staffing levels of western health human resources are gradually approaching the national average, by 2020, though the health resource allocation level of western regions is still relatively backward to the national average, but the gap is very small.Referring to further analysis on the supply and predictable of western regional health human resource, this study did not involve, the reason is mainly include two aspects: First, there are several factors that need to be considered to examine supply forecasting of local health human resource, the situation is more complicated, The second reason, "the numbers of graduated higher medical college students" is not simple equivalent to the local supply of health human resources, Research on the supply of health human resources should be considered at least a five-part content.In this study, the health resources Indicators "HRDI" which created by Zheng Xiaohua etc. in 1993, was borrowwed to analysis the "relative needs" of western region health human resources, we suggests that, HRDI was only in consideration of two factors: demographic and geographic situation, which can not accurately describe the allocation of health resources, more scientific and rational allocation of health resources needs to be determined indicators.Strategies and recommendations: Establish an effective mechanism of personnel training, to improve the overall quality of human resources for health, and promote the coordinated development of regional human resources for health; Improve the health statistics work, to heighten information management of regional health human resources and medical students; Strengthen government responsibility, to improve top-level design on configuration of health human resources; Develop special preferential policies to create a good talent environment, construct the western health professionals "siphon" mechanism. |
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