Research On The Temporal And Spatial Characteristics And Influencing Factor Of China's Floating Population

Since the reform and opening up,the population movement policy has been gradually loosen,the market economy has been established and developed rapidly,and the industrialization and urbanization are continuously improving.The size of the floating population continues to expand.Such a large amount of movement not only impacts the economic development of inflows and outflows,but also affects the quality of urbanization development,the efficiency of resource utilization,and the structure of the population.Therefore,more and more scholars have paid attention to the research related to the spatial pattern and evolution mechanism of Chinese floating population.However,the existing researches on floating population are mainly based on census data and dynamic population monitoring data every decade,and scholars use traditional statistical methods such as descriptive statistics,spatial econometric models and multiple regression methods to explore floating population.As far as the former research,the data used are lagging behind,and it is insufficient to support the existing policy.On the other hand,the data of the floating population has the characteristics of small sample and spatial autocorrelation.If using traditional statistical methods,the accuracy of the results obtained was low,the results obtained were static,and it is impossible to realize the dynamic exploration of the scale of floating population.The aim of this paper is to refine the temporal and spatial characteristics of China's floating population and its influencing mechanism,and to provide reference for the rational development of the region and the regulation of floating population.Therefore,this paper investigates the temporal and spatial characteristics and influencing factors of the floating population in 31 provinces of China,basing on the Bayesian space-time hierarchical non-linear model and the Bayesian domain time-space model.The data is based on the population sampling survey data of China Statistical Yearbook in 1998-2016 and the data of 8 types of socioeconomic indicators.1.In 1998-2016,the overall change in the size of the floating population in 31 provinces and cities in China showes a steady growth trend,but the growth rate has slowed down in the last two years.2.During the study period,the size of the floating population in 31 provinces and cities in China has formed a relatively stable step-like spatial structure—“High east and low in west”.3.During the study period,the local increase rate of the floating population in 31 provinces and cities in China formed a pattern of “high value weak increase,low value strong increase”.4.During the research period,the growth rate of the floating population in hot provinces and cities is gradually slowing down.The growth rate of the floating population in the cold provinces and cities has a strong stamina,and the difference in the size of the floating population in 31 provinces and cities is decreasing.5.Employment opportunities are the primary consideration for the choice of migrants in the eastern,central and western regions,followed by regional development levels.Other types of influencing factors present different mechanisms in these regions.