A Study On The Fertility Desire And Its Influential Factors Of Women Of Childbearing Age In Gansu Province Under The Background Of The Comprehensive Two-child Policy

With the completion of the demographic transition,China's fertility rate has continued to decline.In 2016,the country comprehensively liberalized the two-child policy,and the social environment and policy environment affecting fertility have undergone profound changes.However,people's fertility desire has always been maintained at a relatively low level.Many researchers believe that China has entered the "low fertility trap";some researchers believe that before the two-child policy,due to policy restrictions,the possibility of underestimating the true fertility desire has existed.The actual fertility rate is underestimated.After the two-child policy,it is necessary to re-investigate people's fertility desires.In addition,In the context of loose fertility policy,it becomes more meaningful to further study the current fertility desires and its influencing factors.This study uses the data from Gansu Province in the 2017 National Fertility Survey to make a preliminary statistical analysis of the fertility wishes of women of childbearing age in Gansu Province.After the full liberalization of the two-child policy in 2016,the fertility desire of women of childbearing age has not changed significantly.Through data analysis,it is concluded that the current number of children of childbearing age in Gansu Province is about two.According to the survey data from Gansu Province,the fertility desire of women of childbearing age is not very low,and most people are willing to have two children,which is consistent with the two-child fertility policy.From the results of research in the country and other regions,The fertility desire of women of childbearing age in Gansu Province are in a relatively stable situation.This article focuses the research perspective on the factors that may have impacts on the fertility desire of women of childbearing age in Gansu Province.Through the Optimal scale regression and Poisson regression analysis of the factors that affect the fertility desire of women of childbearing age,the influencing factors of women of childbearing age are analyzed.The following conclusions have been drawn from the three factors of population,society and economy:(1)Ethnicity,age at first marriage,and number of siblings are the main demographic factors affecting fertility desire.TheHan nationality has lower fertility desire than that of ethnic minorities;the age at first marriage is inversely proportional to the fertility desire;the number of siblings owned by women of childbearing age is directly proportional to the fertility desire.(2)Household registration,education and gender preference are the main social factors that affect the fertility desire of women of childbearing age.There is a significant difference in fertility desires between urban and rural areas.The fertility desire in rural areas is higher than that in cities.The longer the years of education,the lower of the fertility desire.From the perspective of gender preference,compared with the absence of gender preference,women of childbearing age with girl preference have higher fertility desire,while women of childbearing age with boy preference have lower fertility willingness.(3)From the perspective of physical capital,the nature of family housing is the most important economic(capital)factor that affects fertility desires.Women of child-bearing age who have purchased a family house have the lowest willingness to give birth,while women of child-bearing age who rent a house or build their own house have a higher willingness to give birth.