Study On The Effect Of Climate Change On The Change Of Agricultural Total Factor Productivity In China

Agriculture is the foundation of the national economy and is directly related to the national food security and the overall situation of socioal-economic development.Since 2004,China's grain output has increased continuously,and the increase in grain production has made a great contribution to China's economic development and social stability.Shi Qinghua et al.(2018)pointed out that the continuous growth of China's grain production is due to the increase of factor input and agricultural total factor productivity(TFP),in which agricultural TFP growth explains 69.36%increase in grain production.Although the existing literature has probed into the agricultural total factor productivity growth based on the specific angle of view,it has greatly enriched the research content of the analysis of the influencing factors of the agricultural total factor productivity.However,there is a lack of empirical tests on the relationship between climate change and agricultural total factor productivity(TFP).Agricultural total factor productivity(TFP)is not only influenced by institutional and investment factors,but also played an important role by climate factors.Agriculture is the intertwined of economic reproduction and natural reproduction.Climate factors such as temperature and rainfall also play an important role in the formation of agricultural output,which will inevitably affect the output efficiency of various types of agricultural inputs.Therefore,it will also have an important impact on all agricultural productivity.According to the new economic growth theory,the progress of agricultural science and technology can offset the adverse effects of climate change on agricultural production,thus promoting agricultural economic growth.Agricultural research investment is an important index to reflect the progress and effect of agricultural science and technology.Agricultural research investment can reduce the risk and uncertainty of agricultural production caused by climatic factors related to agriculture.In this paper,the typical characteristics of climate change in China and its subregions from 1986 to 2016 are analyzed and illustrated in terms of temperature and precipitation.Secondly,the forward Fare-Primont index is used to measure and decompose the agricultural total factor productivity(TFP)in 29 provinces of China from 1986 to 2016.In the aspect of econometric model,the panel data model is adopted to control the fixed effects of years and regions,and the impact of climate change on agricultural total factor productivity is empirically analyzed.The difference effect of temperature and precipitation on agricultural total factor productivity(TFP)was investigated.In order to accurately reflect the agricultural production and climate change Taking winter wheat,maize and japonica rice as examples,the mechanism of climate change on total factor productivity(TFP)of grain during the growing period was further discussed in this paper.Finally,the input factors of agricultural scientific research are introduced,and the mechanism of agricultural scientific research input on agricultural total factor productivity under the background of climate change is considered.Through the above-mentioned system research,the paper mainly draws the following conclusions:(1)During 1986-2016,the temperature in China showed a fluctuating increase,and the heating trend was obvious,which showed that the number of days of low temperature persistence decreased gradually,and the number of days of high temperature persistence increased gradually.The trend of interannual precipitation in China is not obvious.From each region,the temperature shows an upward trend,but the warming trend is obviously different,and the precipitation change also shows obvious regional differences.(2)From 1986 to 2016,the changes of agricultural total factor productivity and decomposition index in China have obvious stage characteristics.On the whole,the agricultural total factor productivity in China shows an obvious fluctuating growth trend,in which the technological progress is increasing,the technical efficiency fluctuates greatly,and the regional gap of agricultural total factor productivity in China is on the rise with the passage of time.(3)There is a nonlinear relationship between temperature and agricultural total factor productivity,and high temperature will significantly reduce agricultural total factor productivity.High temperature mainly reduces total factor productivity by reducing agricultural technical efficiency and technological progress,which plays a leading role in technical efficiency,and there is no nonlinear relationship between precipitation and total agricultural factor productivity in China.(4)Agricultural research investment will respond to climate change,it will slow down the adverse impact of climate change,especially high temperature on agricultural total factor productivity.The more investment in agricultural research,the less adverse effect of climate change on agricultural total factor productivity(TFP).